Point spread: Auburn -1
The Florida Gators take on their third consecutive ranked team in the conference this upcoming Saturday night when they square-off against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in this SEC showdown. Kick-off is slated for 7 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Florida will try and close-out a brutal stretch of games with a win after a 38-10 loss to Alabama as a 3.5-point home underdog two weeks ago and a 41-11 beatdown at the hands of LSU this past Saturday as a 14-point road underdog. The total went ‘over’ in both games and has now gone ‘over’ in the Gators last four games overall. The losses dropped them to 4-2 straight-up on the year and 3-2-1 against the spread.
Quarterback John Brantley remains day-to-day for this game after injuring his ankle in the loss to the Tide. If he cannot go, Florida will turn to a rushing attack that is averaging 210.2 yards a game, but was held to just 113 yards against a stingy LSU defense.
Auburn followed-up its impressive 16-13 victory over South Carolina as a 10.5-point road underdog two weeks ago by getting thumped by Arkansas 38-14 this past Saturday as a 10-point road underdog. This setback leaves it 4-2 SU on the year and 2-4 ATS. The total stayed ‘under’ in both of these games and is 3-3 overall.
The Tigers’ defense was torched by the Razorbacks both in the air and on the ground; giving up a total of 438 yards of offense. It should have an easier time of it against a much less potent Gators’ offense, especially if Brantley remains out of the lineup. Overall, they are ranked 51st in the nation in points allowed; giving up 30.6 points a game.
Florida is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 road games, but just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games in the conference. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games on the road.
Auburn is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home and 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against the SEC. The total has gone ‘over’ in 14 of its last 21 home games.
The Tigers are 3-1 SU in the last four meetings and 4-0 ATS, but these two teams have not played one another since 2007. This time around, stick with the home field advantage as Auburn grinds out the win in a game that stays close until the end.
The Free Pick: Auburn 24 Florida 21
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