NCAA Football Best Bets- Week 10
As the 2011college football regular season enters its final full month of games , the odds makers’ lines keep getting sharper thus making it that much tougher to uncover the value in the point spreads. The good news is that there are always a couple of the ‘bad lines’ out there just waiting to be pounced on.
Last week we scored big on Illinois’s 10-7 loss to Penn State as a five-point road underdog and on West Virginia’s 41-31 victory over Rutgers as a seven-point road favorite. Getting an early jump on this week’s line, we have once again crunched the numbers in an effort to ‘Bang the Book’ with a few NCAA football free picks from Week 10’s schedule.
Michigan Wolverines (-4) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan has climbed to No. 15 in the latest BCS rankings with a 7-1 record straight-up (6-2 against the spread). Last week it bounced-back from a devastating 28-14 loss to Michigan State as a three-point road underdog with a 36-14 victory over Purdue as a 14-point home favorite.
Iowa is coming off a tough 22-21 loss to Minnesota as 14.5-point road favorite and is now 5-3 SU (3-5 ATS) on the year. It was just the second time all season that the Hawkeyes scored less than 30 points in a game this season win or lose.
The Wolverines are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games, while Iowa is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home. Michigan is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall and the underdog in this series is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games.
The Free Pick: Michigan 33 Iowa 30
North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
North Carolina bounced-back from two straight losses in the ACC to Miami and Clemson with a 49-24 rout over Wake Forest as a seven-point home favorite. It is now 6-3 on the year SU, but just 4-5 ATS. This was the first time the Tar Heels covered the spread in their last four games.
NC State dropped to 4-4 SU (2-5-1 ATS) this season after being blanked 34-0 by Florida State as an 18.5-point road underdog this past Saturday. This followed a 28-14 victory over Virginia as a three-point road underdog.
The Tar Heels are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games. The Wolfpack are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog at home. NC State is 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four meetings and the underdog in this series is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Free Pick: NC State 24 North Carolina 20
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-5)
South Carolina is 7-1 SU on the year but just 4-4 ATS. Last week it grinded-out a 14-3 win over Tennessee as a 3.5-point road favorite, but the week before it struggled to get past Mississippi State 14-12 as a three-point road favorite. The Gamecocks have only scored more than 14 points once in their last four games.
Arkansas is also 7-1 AU and 4-4 ATS this season. Last Saturday it had to squeak-out a 31-28 win over Vanderbilt as an eight-point road favorite. The Razorbacks have only scored less than 25 points in seven of their first eight games.
The Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road, but the Razorbacks are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite. South Carolina is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Razorback Stadium.
The Free Pick: Arkansas 27 South Carolina 17
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