NCAA Football Best Bets – Week 13
The end of the college football season always brings a renewal of some of the best in-state rivalries in all of sports. While the odds makers have a wealth of information to sharpen their lines on these games, there is always value to be found in a few select matchups that provide an opportunity the ‘bang the book’ with a high-unit play.
Last week we cashed-in on Minnesota by half a point as a 15.5-point road underdog and on Kansas State in a straight-up win as a 9.5-point road dog. With an early jump on handicapping this week’s contests, we are confident to release our ‘free picks’ for three classic Southeast rivalries on Saturday’s schedule.
No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5) vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia started the season with two-straight losses, but since then has been perfect with a nine game winning streak to climb all the way to 13th in the latest BCS rankings. The Bulldogs have also been profitable over this stretch of games with a 7-2 record against the spread.
Georgia Tech has stumbled down the stretch with a 2-3 record SU after winning its first six games of the season. The Yellow Jackets have been a drain on the bankroll as well with a 1-5 record ATS in their last six games.
The underdog in this series is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, but the road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 games and the Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Georgia Tech. Make it seven in-a-row for Georgia with a big win on the road.
The Free Pick: Georgia 28 Georgia Tech 13
Virginia Tech Hokies (-5) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Tech has risen all the way to No. 5 in the BSC rankings behind a 10-1 record SU, but it has been a nightmare ATS at just 3-8. The Hokies continue to find ways to win games, but they have a bad habit of letting teams hand around way too long.
It has been a couple of rough seasons for the Cavaliers, but they got back-on-track this season with eight wins in 11 games. They can actually claim the ACC Coastal Division title at the expense of their in-state rivals with a win on Saturday as they are 5-2 SU in conference play with the Hokies sitting at 6-1.
The Hokies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, while Virginia is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of 3.5 points or more. The recent trends in this series favor Virginia Tech, but that was then in this now as the Cavaliers pull-off the outright victory this season in a shocker.
The Free Pick: Virginia 28 Virginia Tech 27
Florida State Seminoles (-2) vs. Florida Gators
Florida State was favored to win the ACC this season, but a couple of bad losses early in the year quickly ended that dream. Since losing three of their first four games, the Seminoles reeled-off five straight wins before falling to Virginia 14-13 as 17-point home favorites this past Saturday.
The Gators got off to a 4-0 start, but it has been all downhill from there. They have lost five of their last seven games to fall to 6-5 SU and just 3-7-1 ATS. The historically potent Gator offense is currently ranked 62nd in the country with an average of just 27.3 points a game.
The Seminoles are 2-5 ATS in the seven meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Gainesville. The home team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six games. This year’s rivalry goes down to the wire with Florida State stealing the win on a last-second field goal, but failing to once again cover the spread.
The Free Pick: Florida State 24 Florida 23
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