October 26, 2012

NCAA Football Betting: College Football Matchups for Week 9

Here at Bang the Book, we have all of the top matchups of the 2012 NCAA football betting campaign covered! Today, we’re taking a look at the best matchups for Week 9!

#12 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) @ #1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Spread: Alabama -24, Total: 47

Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL – Saturday, October 27th, 8:30 ET

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The Crimson Tide have to be really careful about looking ahead too far to the LSU Tigers next week. They have a heck of a challenge against a 7-0 Mississippi State team that few know all that much of anything about. The Bulldogs haven’t played a great schedule, but they think highly of themselves. If they’re all that they crack themselves up to be, they’ll at least be able to keep this a game on Saturday night. Very quietly, first place in the SEC West is on the line, and if all goes well for MSU, it might be this game, and not that projected “Game of the Century” between LSU and Bama that ultimately decides which team is playing for the SEC Championship and potentially the BCS National Championship. This is a game to make sure that you watch for sure on Saturday night while you’re flipping channels, as it could be the first time the Tide get challenged.

Colorado Buffaloes (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) @ #2 Oregon Ducks (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Oregon -45.5, Total: 67.5

Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR – Saturday, October 27th, 3:00 ET

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The poor Buffaloes have to be one of the few major conference teams in the history of the power conferences in college football to be underdogs by at least 40 points in back to back weeks. Colorado is just a hapless team that is playing out the string for the rest of the year, and the question isn’t whether the team is going to be getting beaten. It’s by how many points. Oregon has rolled off a ton of halves this year with at least 35 points scored in them, and we wouldn’t be all that surprised to see at least one of them again in this one. Heck, who knows… It could be two of them! The Quack Attack rolled to a 45-2 victory when these two first played in the Pac-12 last year, and with the way that Oregon has been falling in the rankings, there is no way that it is going to let this game go lightly. If it does and doesn’t win by a most impressive margin, in all likelihood, the Ducks will once again take another fall if Notre Dame beats Oklahoma.

#3 Florida Gators (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. #11 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS)
Spread: Florida -7, Total: 47.5

EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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The World’s Largest Cocktail Party takes place this Saturday, and that means that the Gators and Bulldogs are going to have at it in Jacksonville. This annual event always means quite a lot, but it might mean more this year than it has in quite some time because both teams are still in the SEC East race and the National Championship chase as well. Georgia is pretty well done on both accounts with a loss, and it can book its tickets to the Sunshine State for one of its bowl games in all likelihood on January 1st. A win though, and the SEC East race is back up for grabs once again, with the advantage going to the Dawgs. Florida most certainly controls its own destiny to get to the BCS National Championship Game, and it probably does so even if it loses this game, but the road will be a heck of a lot harder if there isn’t a guaranteed game against Alabama to work with. UF lost last year’s tussle by four, just barely missing covering the number at +3.5.

#17 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) @ #4 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS)
Spread: Kansas State -7.5, Total: 60.5

Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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Not only are Kansas State and Texas Tech two of the Top 20 teams in the nation, but they are also two of the best ATS teams in the land as well. The Wildcats are obviously still chasing the National Championship, and it is going to take five more wins to reach that point. However, Texas Tech still knows that it almost controls its own destiny to win the Big XII, a task that it truly takes to heart right now. T-Tech has scored oodles of points in this series over the course of the last four meetings dating back to 2005, an average of 54.25 points per game. The Red Raiders have covered five of the last six in this series and had won four in row SU before last year’s 41-34 loss in Lubbock. If there were ever a good time to get some payback, this would be the time that the men with the Guns Up would want that to happen.

#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) @ #7 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Spread: Oklahoma -11, Total: 48.5

Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK – Saturday, October 27th, 8:00 ET

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This is the time that the perfect season is supposed to come to a crashing halt for Notre Dame, and it very well could end up doing just that when push comes to shove. The Irish defense continues to be out of this world, but in the end, there is only so much that can be done with an offense that just really isn’t all that great. Oklahoma knows that this is a game that it absolutely has to have if it wants to stay in the BCS National Championship hunt. It might be the same thing for the Golden Domers, but with so much football left to play, it certainly isn’t necessarily damning, and it most certainly won’t take them out of the BCS bowl chase. These two teams haven’t met all that often, but they are most certainly massive powers, and one of these two is going to take a huge step in the right direction this weekend.

#7 USC Trojans (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) @ Arizona Wildcats (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Spread: USC -6.5, Total: 65.5

Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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Even though USC’s loss to Stanford might end up looking pretty bad at the end of the season, at least for right now, the Men of Troy are sitting pretty at No. 7 in the nation, and they probably will ultimately be in the BCS National Championship Game if they can win out. It’ll be tough and will take some help, but a 12-1 USC team that beats Oregon twice probably ends up in Miami Gardens in January. Arizona on the other hand, already has three losses, but its dreams of the Rose Bowl aren’t totally evaporated yet. Winning this game at home is a must though, and it is the biggest game without a shadow of a doubt to date in the Rich Rodriguez era. The Wildcats have only won one of the last seven meetings, that coming at the LA Coliseum in 2010, but they have covered six of those seven spreads. Points should be flying on the board on Saturday afternoon in Tucson.

#9 Oregon State Beavers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) @ Washington Huskies (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Oregon State -3.5, Total: 48

CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA – Saturday, October 27th, 10:15 ET

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Think that the oddsmakers know that Oregon State is overrated at No. 9 in the nation? The Beavers have really had a meteoric rise from nothingness into the Top 10 in the nation, and the computers love them as well. However, being just a 3.5 point favorite on the road against an unranked team seems to be suspect at best. To Washington’s credit, it might have the hardest schedule that any team has played in America this year, as this is already going to be the sixth game in which it has faced a Top 25 foe and the fifth in which that foe has been ranked in the Top 10 at some point over the course of the season. The Huskies need some real help offensively to be able to win this game, and it won’t be easy against a very good Oregon State defense. The Beavs should be getting back QB Sean Mannion for this one, which should help a ton. The Huskies are reeling though with eight straight failed attempts at a cover against the Beavers.

Duke Blue Devils (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) @ #10 Florida State Seminoles (7-1 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Florida State -27.5, Total: 57.5

Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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In basketball, this would be a pretty darn good game. In football, it never has before. There’s a first time for everything, though. The garnet and gold have never lost a game in this series over the course of the last 20+ years in which the team has been involved in the ACC, and the closest that the Blue Devils have ever gotten is 19 points. It’s not tough to imagine how Florida State might be in the ACC Championship Game, as all that it has to do is win out in ACC games, all of which the Seminoles will be favored by at least a touchdown. However, the Dookies control their own destiny for some December football as well, and they will when this one is said and done with even if it is lost as well. It’s still tough to think that the Seminoles are going to ultimately screw the pooch in this game, and that’s why this is still one of the highest point spreads of the weekend.

#13 Clemson Tigers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Spread: Clemson -13, Total: 59

BB&T Field, Winston Salem, NC – Thursday, October 25th, 8:00 ET

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Clemson is the first ranked team to give it a go this weekend, as the Tigers are going to take on Wake Forest in a battle of a pair of ACC Atlantic Division teams. Wake Forest already knows that it is just on a conquest to try to win six games this year to qualify for a bowl game, while the Tigers are still trying to win the Atlantic and make it back to the ACC Championship Game again. It won’t be easy, knowing that Florida State has to lose another game for that to happen, but if this one is punted away, the purple and orange can kiss any hopes of the BCS goodbye. The Deacs have only won one game in this series over the course of the last six years, but they do have three covers to show for their work. They’ll hope for even better under the national lights this weekend against one of the fringe National Championship contenders in the ACC.

Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) @ #14 Louisville Cardinals (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Louisville -3, Total: 52

Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY – Friday, October 26th, 8:00 ET

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Louisville and Cincinnati figured to be a real treat of a Friday night fight this week, but last week, the Bearcats were tripped by the Toledo Rockets and taken out of the Top 25. However, both of these teams are still most certainly in the running for the Big East title, and the winner of this one is going to go quite a long ways in figure out which team will get to the BCS and likely the Orange Bowl this year. This is just Cincinnati’s second road game of the year, and last week was the first legitimate road test (with one neutral site game thrown in the mix) against the Rockets at the Glass Bowl… And we all see how well that worked out in the end. UC has won four in a row in this series and covered three of the four, but we also have to remember that three of the four games were separated by nine points or fewer.

Kent State Golden Flashes (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) @ #15 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Spread: Rutgers -13.5, Total: 45.5

High Point Solutions Stadium, Piscataway, NJ – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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Last week, it was Toledo out of the MAC that was able to beat a Big East team. Now, it’s up to Kent State to do it again. In fact, the MAC has had a fantastic year against the big boy teams, and that’s why this conference could send six or seven to bowls, while the Big East might only have three teams qualify when push comes to shove. Kent State is one of the teams that could go bowling, but it has played absolutely no one on the schedule all year long. Rutgers hasn’t played much of a schedule either, but at least it has four wins already in conference play. The Scarlet Knights have to be careful not to take this one too lightly, or they are going to be in a heck of a lot of trouble going forward for the rest of the year in the Big East. There is a lot of money at stake for bowl games for these schools that are in the running for the Big East title. These teams met in 1994 and 2004, and in both instances, the Golden Flashes were able to walk away with a cover in spite of some Rutgers victories.

Tennessee Volunteers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) @ #16 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)
Spread: South Carolina -14, Total: 55

Williams Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC – Saturday, October 27th, 12:00 ET

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South Carolina has to get up off the mat if it doesn’t want to see this season spiral out of control. The Gamecocks are in a heck of a lot of trouble at the moment, as they have now lost two straight games, and they still have a number of tough clashes to go. They really looked like they gave up last week on the road against Florida, and that can’t hold over here at home. Tennessee is a hungry, hungry team that is probably a heck of a lot better than a 3-4 record suggests. Still, it is going to take three more wins just to get to a bowl game this year, and Head Coach Derek Dooley absolutely has to have that to have any chance of keeping his job. The truth of the matter is that he might have to win this one to ultimately keep that job anyway. The Vols have covered four of the last six, but the Gamecocks walked away with a 14-3 victory last year when these two met on Rocky Top.

#18 Boise State Broncos (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) @ Wyoming Cowboys (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Spread: Boise State -16.5, Total: 51.5

War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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War Memorial Stadium is never an easy place to go play a football game, but we really don’t believe that the Broncos are truly on any sort of upset alert. Wyoming is only getting about a quarter of the public action, but the real question is whether it is a team that is as good as last year’s bowl team was, one that is as bad as this year’s 1-6 record suggests, or something in the middle. Odds have it, it’s somewhere in the middle. Obviously, this is a game that Boise State can’t afford to slip up in, and there’s no reason to think that it will, knowing that it has won all six games in this series since 2002. The Broncos though, are 4-2 ATS, including covering last year as 32-point underdogs on the Smurf Turf in November.

Washington State Cougars (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) @ #19 Stanford Cardinal (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
Spread: Stanford -24.5, Total: 51

Stanford Stadium, Palo Alto, CA – Saturday, October 27th, 6:15 ET

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The Pac-12 title race is still up in the air for the Cardinal, but they absolutely cannot afford a second defeat under any circumstance. This would be a debilitating loss that the team never recovered from, but it isn’t like this is a game that is truly all that dangerous. The Cougars have really fallen apart this year under the direction of Head Coach Mike Leach, but you never know when their offense is going to get its act together and turn into something special. It isn’t like that that happens this year, but you just know that it will at some point. Stanford has won four straight games in this series, and it has covered three of the four. This is the fifth straight year though, that Wazzu has been an underdog by at least 17 points in this series.

#20 Michigan Wolverines (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Nebraska -2, Total: 57.5

Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE – Saturday, October 27th, 8:00 ET

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At the end of the weekend, either the Wolverines or the Huskers are going to be ranked in the Top 25 in the nation, and the team that is ranked will be well on their way to the Big Ten Championship Game in all likelihood. QB Taylor Martinez and QB Denard Robinson are largely the same quarterback, though Robinson takes off more often and faster than Martinez does and probably has the slightly better arm. Nebraska has had some major problems with mobile quarterbacks, as both Robinson and QB Braxton Miller have had tremendous games against the Huskers over the course of the last calendar year. Michigan has been playing flat out awesome offense of late, holding five straight teams to 13 points or fewer. These teams have met three times since 1986, and both are 1-1-1 ATS in those outings. Last year was a 45-17 victory for Big Blue in the first meeting of these two at the Big House while the two are in the Big Ten.

#20 Texas A&M Aggies (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) @ Auburn Tigers (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)
Spread: Texas A&M -15, Total: 53.5

Jordan Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL – Saturday, October 27th, 7:00 ET

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Auburn is continuing down its fiery path of destruction in the SEC West, and up next is a battle with Johnny Football and the Aggies. QB Johnny Manziel is putting up remarkable numbers on a regular basis, and this should be another game where he gets the job done. The Aggies have failed to cover three in a row, but they are still outgaining teams by a ton of yards each and every week. Conversely, the Tigers have been outgained by at least 150 yards five times in seven games this year. The Aggies are still absolutely in the chase for the SEC West title, though the chances that they ultimately win the game against Alabama are slim and none. These two teams haven’t met since 1986, a bowl game that A&M took 36-16. The countdown for Head Coach Gene Chizik to be fired is clearly still on.

#23 Ohio Bobcats (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) @ Miami Redhawks (3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS)
Spread: Ohio -7, Total: 61.5

Fred Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

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It is very, very clear that the Redhawks are ridiculously sharp. The week opened with the Bobcats favored by more than a touchdown, but in spite of the fact that 68% of the action is on the ranked team, the spread is plummeting and might be under a TD by the time this one ultimately kicks off. This is a dangerous game for sure for Ohio, and it obviously can’t lose this game and still have any hope whatsoever at the BCS for the first time, not just in school history, but in MAC history as well. The Bobcats had covered five in a row before last year, when a 21-14 victory against the Redhawks didn’t prove to be enough to cover the 7.5 point spread. Remember that Ohio has failed to cover three straight, and this is the only time since September 15th that the team was favored by less than 14.5.

#24 Texas Longhorns (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) @ Kansas Jayhawks (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Spread: Texas -19, Total: 60

Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS – Saturday, October 27th, 12:00 ET

Click Here For Handicapping Match-up Details

The Jayhawks are just 1-6 through seven games, and matters just aren’t getting any better. The likelihood is there that the team is going to finish 1-11, and that might send Head Coach Charlie Weis packing after just one year. The Longhorns have coaching problems of their own right now, as Head Coach Mack Brown is more or less being insinuated to retire at the end of the year, especially after getting whooped by Oklahoma. Still, what this version of the Longhorns has to remember is that it isn’t out of the Big XII Championship race quite yet, and a BCS bowl game as an at large team probably will be had if the squad can run the table. This isn’t a game that should be lost under any circumstance against the worst team in the conference. The Longhorns have covered four in a row in this series, and three of those four games came as favorites as at least four touchdowns.

Michigan State Spartans (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) @ #25 Wisconsin Badgers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
Spread: Wisconsin -6, Total: 40.5

Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI – Saturday, October 27th, 3:30 ET

Click Here For Handicapping Match-up Details

The Badgers have covered four in a row, and they are back in the Top 25 after their fall from grace at the outset of the campaign with two losses. Michigan State has dropped two straight games, and that has really taken it out of the Rose Bowl possibilities. QB Andrew Maxwell and his offense have been absolutely terrible, as there is just one game since beating Central Michigan in which the team has scored more than 23 points. Meanwhile, the Badgers will already lock up their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game for the second straight year with a win and an Indiana loss. The home team has won seven straight in this series and covered five of the seven. These two teams met last year twice. MSU covered both games, but in the end, it was the Badgers that won the big one to get to the Rose Bowl.

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Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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