NCAA Football Betting Favorite: Florida -19.5
To say that Florida has dominated Kentucky the last few years is putting it mildly. The Gators have outscored Kentucky 152 to 26 in the last three meetings. The Wildcats are a much better team at home, but they have struggled badly on offense this year. Florida is looking to return to the top of the SEC after a bit of a down season in 2010. Can Kentucky stick around at home or will it be all Florida in this one?
John Brantley has looked a little more comfortable in the Gators offense this season. Brantley struggled throughout the year in 2010, but he is completing 65.3% of his passes this year. While the passing game has improved some, the running game has improved quite a bit this season. Chris Rainey has been the main man in the backfield, and he is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. Jeff Demps has also been getting quite a few carries, and you won’t find a faster running back than Demps.
The Florida defense has been amazing so far this season. This unit has allowed just 31 rushing yards per game, which is easily first in all of college football. Their opponents have been gaining only 209 total yards per game this season. This defense has as much speed as anyone in the country this year. I expect them to show just how dominate they are again this weekend.
Kentucky squeaked out unimpressive wins against Western Kentucky and Central Michigan in their first two games, but they fell at home against rival Louisville last week. The Kentucky offense just hasn’t been good enough so far this year. Morgan Newton is struggling to get the passing game going. At the same time, the Wildcats running game has seen a large drop in production from last year. This offense is only scoring 19 points per game so far in 2011.
The Wildcats defense has been solid this season. This is a defense that has done a nice job forcing turnovers and keeping their opponent out of the end zone. They are allowing just 13.3 points per game so far this season. This is a scrappy defense, but they’ll be tested by Florida’s speedsters in the backfield this week.
Kentucky has looked awful on offense this season, and Florida will easily be the best defense they have faced. I don’t believe Kentucky will score more than 10 points in this one. I like Florida to cover, and I also like the under.
Free College Football Picks: Florida -19.5 and under 43
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