(6-1, 2-5 ATS)
(5-1, 4-2 ATS)
Last season, a successful trip to Camp Randall really boosted the BCS Championship odds for the Iowa Hawkeyes. On Saturday, the scene in this series shifts to Kinnick Stadium, as they try to take out the Wisconsin Badgers for the third straight year.
This is an awful scheduling spot for the Badgers on Saturday. They have to still feel good about knocking off the No. 1 team in the country last week, as the win over the Ohio State Buckeyes was one of the best in the school’s history. However, they have to travel to Kinnick now, a place where they have had very little luck, against one of those hardnosed teams that always give you their best shot week in and week out. If the Badgers have any shot in this one, they’re going to have to knock Iowa in the mouth first and bloody it up. Good luck with that. At least Wisky has a loaded cannon, per se. Both RB John Clay and RB James White are dynamos. The two have combined to run for 1,356 yards this year, leaving them amongst the best rushing pairs in the country. They also have a whopping 20 rushing TDs between them. QB Scott Tolzien is coming off of a game in which he threw for just 152 yards with a pick, but he demonstrated great poise by completing 81.3 percent of his passes, which raised his average this year to 70.9 percent.
Then there’s Iowa, which is still licking its wounds from that loss to the Arizona Wildcats in the desert back on September 18th. Since that point, HC Kirk Ferentz’s bunch has been on a ridiculous tear, as not only are the Hawkeyes 3-0 SU, but 3-0 ATS as well. Last week, the Michigan Wolverines did find a way to penetrate their defense, but they are only one of two teams all season that have scored more than seven points against this ‘D’. That includes games against the Iowa State Cyclones and Penn State Nittany Lions, neither of which is as good as Wisconsin is, but both of which could be going bowling this year. On offense, QB Ricky Stanzi just continues to refuse to lose. He has still only been beaten once as a starting quarterback in college in games that he has finished, and a solid TD/INT ratio is the reason for that this year. Stanzi has only been picked off twice and has 13 TD passes, and he has a 68.3 completion percentage to boot, one of the best numbers in the Big Ten. Watch out for RB Adam Robinson in this one. Robinson is averaging 21.5 carries per game and is a big, physical back. He has 623 yards and eight TDs this year and is sure to be a big part of the game plan once again this week.
This is really a mismatch. Wisconsin just isn’t as good as Iowa, and everyone really knows it. If the Badgers got crushed by Ohio State, they would be 8-9 point chalks in this game. Instead, we’re getting a fantastic price on a fantastic team. Don’t be afraid to tease, please, and parlay all over the place with the Hawkeyes, as they are going to destroy the NCAA football odds in this game and continue their winning streaks both SU and ATS to four games.
College Football Free Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5
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