November 15, 2010

NCAA Football Free Pick: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets



Bowling Green Falcons
(2-8, 6-4 ATS)

Toledo Rockets
(6-4, 5-5 ATS)

Rivals from the MAC West lock horns on Wednesday night in a duel that NCAA football betting fans won’t want to miss, as the Toledo Rockets and Bowling Green Falcons do battle.

The Falcons very well could be a 6-4 team right now as well if not for the fact that four games this year were lost by three points or fewer. QB Matt Schilz just hasn’t been able to come up big when it really counts, and it has killed his team. Schilz has a great receiver on the outside in the form of WR Kamar Jorden, who is likely to become a 1,000 yard target by the time this week is said and done. However, the defense has been just as untimely for Bowling Green as its offense has. Though the unit has played better in recent weeks and has held its last two foes to just 38 points, the stretch from the start of the season through the 30-6 loss to the Kent State Golden Flashes at home was just brutal. This unit had allowed 36.4 points per game in those first eight games of the year, and things just were never looking up. At least there are some things to feel reasonable about now, though trying to stop the Toledo offense might be a very tall task and is significantly taller than what the Falcons saw last week in a 24-21 loss against the Miami Redhawks.

Toledo has two major issues right now, though. The first is motivation. The team was just taken out by the Northern Illinois Huskies 65-30 in a game that was absolutely never close. Bowl eligibility is already in the bag with six wins this year, and there are two games left to get a seventh win if that is what is needed to sew down a spot. The MAC West won’t be won unless the Huskies inexplicably slip twice to two of the worst teams in the conference in the next two weeks. The second problem is that the Rockets are going to be playing their final two regular season games without the services of QB Austin Dantin. The freshman went down early last week against NIU, and once he went down, the air totally came out of the visitors. Toledo was smoked in that game, and though it rebounded in an offensive flurry of a third quarter, it never really stood a chance of surviving. So now, a defense which has allowed 41 points to the Arizona Wildcats and 57 to the Boise State Broncos is questioning itself as well, another factor that could really hurt the folks watching this one at the Glass Bowl on Wednesday night.

Needless to say, we just can’t back the Rockets at this point. There is no way, with all of this going against them, that we’ll put our hard earned money on the line. Bowling Green is a team that has a lot going for it, and though it doesn’t know that it can win games at this point, it knows that it can compete. Just competing is good enough for us on Wednesday.

College Football Expert Pick: Bowling Green Falcons +11.5

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