(1-3, 2-2 ATS)
(2-2, 3-1 ATS)
It’ll be a spelling bee in the Sunshine State on Wednesday night in the first Conference USA betting battle of the season for the UCF Knights. They’ll take on the UAB Blazers in the first of a series of midweek games for this conference that will be shown on national television.
The good news for the Blazers is that their offense has had three very good games against just one awful one. Neither the passing attack nor the rushing game has really excelled, but both are doing just enough to put points on the board. QB David Isabelle is being used as a dual threat, and he is taking advantage of his chances on the field. Isabelle has thrown for 260 yards and rushed for 437 more, accounting for seven total scores against two INTs. However, it is QB Bryan Ellis that does the majority of the throwing. He is only completing 56.3 percent of his passes, but 777 yards and four scores against three picks are numbers that are getting the job done. This offense is averaging 25.2 points per game this year, but as we alluded to earlier, there was only one dud of a game in the bunch in which they scored less than 29 points. A win against the Troy Trojans and an OT defeat at Rocky Top has to be giving the Blazers a lot of momentum coming into Wednesday night.
The Knights might still be missing RB Brynn Harvey this year, but the offense has still gotten enough going to put them in the win column twice this year. However, the problem for UCF is that turnovers have killed it. If not for timely errors, the Knights would be 4-0 and would widely be accepted as the top team in Conference USA, especially with Houston Cougars missing QB Case Keenum for the season. The defense for UCF can only do so much, as all four foes this year were held to 28 points or less and three of the four were kept to 17 or less. This ‘D’ ranks 10th in the country at 264.2 yards per game allowed and is ninth against the pass at 147.0 yards per game allowed. QB Jeff Godfrey finally looks like he is going to take over as the one and only signal caller for HC George O’Leary. He has thrown for 394 yards and one score and rushed for 203 yards and two scores. There are only ten TDs for the Knights to speak of offensively in four games, and that obviously won’t cut it to beat the NCAA football odds on Wednesday.
UCF might be the superior team by a country mile in this game, but there is no way that we can lay this many points with an offense this bad. Just watching the UAB offense get to 14 points or so could be enough to cover this number, and as a result, we’ll be backing the Blazers.
Selection: UAB Blazers +13