Nevada Wolf Pack
(8-1, 4-5 ATS)
Fresno State Bulldogs
(6-2, 3-4-1 ATS)
The WAC might be Boise State’s conference, but the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Nevada Wolf Pack both have their sights set on the Top 25. Nevada has it, but if it loses in Saturday night’s last NCAA football betting affair, the Bulldogs will steal it.
Nevada is coming off of a ridiculous offensive showing in which it dumped 844 yards on the Idaho Vandals. It was just another display of the Pistol offense at its best and was the best offensive performance in terms of yardage that any team put forth this season, including all of the battles between FBS and FCS opponents. We just love looking at these stats as each week passes. QB Colin Kaepernick has thrown for 1,990 yards and 17 TDs and rushed for another 793 yards and 13 TDs on the campaign, while RB Vai Taua has rushed for 1,041 yards and 11 scores. The Wolf Pack average 556.1 yards per game as a team and are putting forth 317.8 yards per game on the ground. Both numbers are good enough for No. 4 in the country. The issue really isn’t the defense either, though we know that there are a lot of games in which this unit hasn’t been up to snuff. We’re afraid that these guys don’t know how to play on the road, as the three games prior to the duel with the Vandals resulted in just 30.7 points per game.
The Bulldogs have very quietly put together six wins this season, and they are in a position where they can make a lot of noise in a national TV performance on Saturday night. Many don’t realize that this offense has put together very consistent showings all season long, scoring at least 27 points in all of its games. The defense has been hit and miss this year, but things aren’t as bad as 27.6 points per game suggests. Four foes have been held under 20 points this year, though only one has any chance of going bowling this year. QB Ryan Colburn has thrown for 1,736 yards and 16 scores, but the hero of the offense has been RB Robbie Rouse. The sophomore has taken over in a big way for the departed RB Ryan Mathews, and he has had a fantastic stretch of games of late. Rouse has rumbled for 552 yards on a whopping 86 carries with five scores in three games. Though this unit is putting 34.8 points per game on the board, an average of 394.0 yards per game needs to be eclipsed on Saturday night to beat the Wolf Pack.
This game looks way, way too much like the duel that Nevada played against the Hawaii Warriors a few weeks ago. The Wolf Pack went on the road and played against a team that was severely underrated and ultimately found out that its Pistol couldn’t be the end all, be all. This is going to be a very, very close encounter, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Bulldogs pull off the big time upset to knock Nevada from the Top 25.
College Football Free Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +8.5