NFL Best Bets-Week 10
The road teams got the best of the odds makers in Week 9 of the NFL regular season with 10 of 14 visiting teams covering against the spread. The favorites and underdogs were a bit more balanced with eight teams getting points covering ATS. Our ‘best bets’ did not fare so well with a win on the Jets but losses on both Oakland and Tampa Bay.
To atone for last week’s setback, we crunched the numbers even harder on this week‘s spreads and are once again ready to ‘Bang the Book’ with three more free NFL picks.
Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Buffalo comes into this game off one of its worst performances of the season; getting thumped 27-11 by the Jets as a 2.5-point home favorite. The Bills still have a share of the AFC East division lead at 5-3 straight-up (4-3-1 against the spread) and are one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL with an average of 27.8 points a game.
The Cowboys 23-13 victory over Seattle as 11-point home favorites kept them in the NFC East title picture at 4-4 SU (3-4-1 ATS). However, the win over the Seahawks proved to be costly as wide receiver Miles Austin will be out for a few weeks after reinjuring his hamstring.
The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog on the road. Dallas is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite at home. The ‘Boys get the win, but once again fail to cover at home.
The Free NFL Pick: Dallas 28 Buffalo 27
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers continue to struggle with consistency after following-up a dominating 25-17 victory over New England two weeks ago as three-point home underdogs with a potentially devastating 23-20 loss to arch-rival Baltimore as 3.5-point home favorite this past Sunday. This sets the stage for a strong bounce-back this week.
While rookies Andy Dalton at quarterback and A.J. Green as his primary receiver have been impressive in their professional debuts, Cincinnati’s surprising 6-2 SU start (7-1 ATS) can be mainly attributed to a defense that is holding its opponents to an average of just 17.5 points a game.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings overall and 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Cincinnati. The road team in this series is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 games and the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Free NFL Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 14
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Detroit’s 45-10 pounding of Denver as a three-point road favorite before last week’s bye snapped a two game losing skid that had people thinking its strong start was just a fluke. The bottom-line is that the Lions are 6-2 SU (5-2-1 ATS) with the third-ranked scoring offense in the NFL and a defense that is ranked sixth in points allowed.
The Bears pulled-out a huge 30-24 victory over Philadelphia last Monday night as nine-point road underdogs to raise their record to 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) on the year. Jay Cutler threw for two touchdowns and did not turn the ball over once against the Eagles, but it has been rare for him to turn in back-to-back turnover-free performances over the course of his career.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC North. Head-to-head in this series, the underdog is 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings and the Lions are 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
The Pick: Detroit 23 Chicago 21
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