December 1, 2011

NFL Best Bets-Week 13

NFL Best Bets-Week 13

The Thanksgiving Holiday weekend proved to be a good time to take a trip in the NFL with 10 road teams covering against the spread. Only four home teams covered as two games ended in a ‘push’. The favorites and the underdogs were evenly split at 7-7-2 and the total line was also even with eight games going ‘over’ the total and eight staying ‘under’. Our Week 12 ‘best bets’ were a bit off the mark with the correct call on Buffalo, but the wrong one on Cincinnati and Seattle.

In an effort to get back on track, we crunched the numbers even harder on this week‘s spreads and are once again ready to ‘Bang the Book’ with three more free NFL picks.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Houston Texans

Atlanta has won five of its last six games but finds itself in an old-fashioned dog fight with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Falcons are 7-4 straight-up (4-6-1 against the spread) and trail the Saints by a game in the division race.

Houston is 8-3 SU and a profitable 7-3-1 ATS, but its finds itself in a very difficult position to maintain this level of success with first the loss of starting quarterback Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury, and now its back-up Matt Leinart with a broken collarbone. Rookie T.J. Yates will get the call for this game.

The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in December and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games on the road. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games in December. Atlanta steals one on the road as Yates struggles in his first NFL start.

The Free NFL Pick: Atlanta 20 Houston 13

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Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The early season hype over rookie sensation Cam Newton has died down as the reality that Carolina is not a very good team has become more than evident over the past few weeks. Overall, the Panthers are 3-8 SU but a respectable 6-5 ATS. However, they have gone just 1-4 both SU and ATS in their last five games.

Tampa Bay has lost five straight games since its trip to London and is now 4-7 both SU and ATS on the year. The Bucs offense is ranked 25th in the NFL in scoring and their defense is ranked 29 in points allowed, but this Sunday’s game really comes down to the lesser of two evils.

Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games on the road. The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC South. The favorite in this series is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Stick with Tampa Bay to snap the losing skid and cover the three points at home.

The Free NFL Pick: Tampa Bay 24 Carolina 20

St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-13)

If you pull-up the current injury report for St. Louis you might think you are actually looking at a lineup card but you are not. The result of all these injuries on a team that was not that deep with talent to start with has led to a very predictable 2-9 record both SU and ATS.

With the 49ers coming out on the wrong end of last Thursday night’s Harbaugh Bowl with a 16-6 loss to Baltimore as a 3.5-point road underdog, you can best believe that younger brother Jim will have his team ready to go this week.

The Rams are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs and San Francisco is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to San Francisco. Enough said.

The Free NFL Pick: San Francisco 34 St. Louis 13

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Dave Schwab

DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.

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