NFL Best Bets – Week 16
It was good to be on the road last week as nine teams covered against the spread verse just six home teams. One game ended in a ‘push’. The underdogs had a slight edge over the favorites at 8-7-1 and the total went ‘over’ in nine games, stayed ‘under’ in six, and there was one ‘push’. Our Week 15 ‘best bets’ went 1-2 with the correct play on Dallas, but the wrong call on the NY Giants and Arizona.
In an effort to provide a few extra gifts for the Holidays, we dug a bit deeper into this week‘s spreads and are once again ready to ‘Bang the Book’ with three more free picks for Week 16 in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Cleveland’s 20-17 overtime loss to Arizona as a six-point road underdog was its fourth-straight loss and seventh in its last eight games. The Browns’ offense with Colt McCoy at quarterback was mediocre at best. With Seneca Wallace calling the signals, it is downright non-existent.
Baltimore’s embarrassing 34-14 loss to San Diego last Sunday as a one-point road favorite dropped it to 10-4 straight-up and 7-6-1 against the spread. The Ravens cannot afford anymore losses if they hope to win the AFC North as well as secure one of the top two seeds in the AFC.
The Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against the AFC North, while Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games against the division. The favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in the last seven games. The Ravens need this game way too much to let it remain close down the stretch.
The Free NFL Pick: Baltimore 27 Cleveland 10
Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Oakland finds itself in the midst of a three-game slide in which it has been outscored 108-57. It is still just one game out of the lead in the AFC West at 7-7 SU (8-5-1 ATS), but a loss this Sunday would pretty much end its chances to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
Kansas City comes into this game flying-high after beating the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers 19-14 as an 11-point home favorite. It still has some outside designs on returning to the postseason at 6-8 SU (8-6 ATS).
The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS and the road team is 20-5-1 ATS over the last 26 meetings in this series. The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Kansas City. This will be a tall task, but Oakland finds a way to rally for a huge win on the road.
The Free NFL Pick: Oakland 23 Kansas City 20
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)
Miami has been a tale of two teams this season. The first stumbled out of the gate with seven straight losses, while the other one has gone 5-2 in the last seven games. The net result is a 5-9 record SU, but a very competitive 7-6-1 record ATS.
New England now has the best record in the AFC at 11-3 SU, but has been a very average 8-6 ATS. The Patriots bring a six-game winning streak into Saturday’s game but they are 1-2 ATS in their last three. There may even be a bit of a letdown after last week’s 41-23 beatdown of the over-hyped Denver Broncos as seven-point road favorites.
The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. New England is 5-1 SU at home this season, but just 3-3 ATS. The road team in this series has covered the spread in seven of the last nine meetings. The Dolphins have been one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL over the second half of the season and do not go down without a fight in this one.
The Free NFL Pick: New England 31 Miami 24
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