NFL Week 4 Best Bets
NFL ‘Best Bets’-Week 4
The dogs had their day last week as 11 of the 16 teams getting points covered the spread or won their games straight-up. We had Tampa Bay as one of the few favorites to win and cover, but missed the boat on Seattle and Buffalo, who each pulled off an outright win as home dogs.
Going back to the drawing board to crunch the numbers even harder, Bang the Book has come up with three more ‘best bets’ for Week 4 in the NFL.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)
The Titans are off to a solid 2-1 start SU, but are 1-2 ATS. They failed to cover last week in a 17-14 win over Denver as a seven-point home favorite. The loss of wide receiver Kenny Britt, who is lost for the season with a torn ACL, could end up being a huge loss for this team.
Cleveland is also off to a 2-1 SU start and are 1-1-1 ATS after grinding out a 17-16 win over Miami last week as a one-point home favorite. Running back Peyton Hillis should be back in the lineup this week after missing last week’s game with strep throat.
Tennessee is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a SU win. The Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4 and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
The Pick: Cleveland 20 Tennessee 17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)
The Steelers have been less than consistent so far with an opening day 35-7 rout at the hands of Baltimore as one-point road underdogs and a three-point win over Indianapolis as 10.5-point road favorites all sandwiched around a 24-0 romp over Seattle as 13.5-point home favorites.
The Texans rolled to wins in their first two games in which they easily covered the spread, but came up short in a 40-33 shootout with New Orleans last week as 3.5-point road underdogs.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss. Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite, but just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Steelers have won the last two meetings both SU and ATS.
The Pick: Houston 24 Pittsburgh 21
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-8)
The Dolphins have stumbled out of the gate to a 0-3 start SU, but have shown some promise on the offensive side of the ball with an average of 387.7 total yards a game including 129.7 yards a game on the ground.
San Diego is 2-1 SU, but 0-3 ATS after close calls against Minnesota and Kansas City, which are a combined 0-6 this season. Tight end Antonio Gates remains out of the lineup with an injury to his right foot and safety Bob Sanders remains questionable with a knee injury.
Miami is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games as a road underdog, while the Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as favorites. The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two and 4-1 ATS in their last five games in San Diego.
The Pick: Miami 21 San Diego 20
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