NFL Best Bets-Week 9
The odds makers continue to keep the lines razor sharp and for the second week in-a-row the favorites and underdogs were evenly split as six games apiece with one game ending as a ‘push’. The home teams had a slight 7-5-1 edge. For the second week in-a-row the ‘best bets’ were also split right down the middle as well with a record of 1-1-1. We cashed in on Kansas City, lost on New England, and ended-up with a ‘push’ on Jacksonville vs. Houston.
We crunched the numbers even harder this week and are ready to once again ‘Bang the Book’ with our three top plays for Week 9 in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-9)
Tampa is going for a rare two-game season sweep of the Saints after beating them 26-20 three weeks ago as a six-point home underdog. After a 24-18 loss to Chicago as 1.5-point underdogs two weeks ago in London, the Buccaneers come in at 4-3 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread.
New Orleans is still in a state of shock after losing to the previously winless St. Louis Rams 31-21 as a 13.5-point road favorite. The loss dropped it to 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The Saints’ defense is still having major problems stopping the run after Steven Jackson torched them for 159 yards on the ground last week.
The road team in this series is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the underdog is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games. The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to the New Orleans. The Saints even the score at home, but fail to cover the nine-point spread.
The NFL Free Pick: New Orleans 28 Tampa Bay 20
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-1)
New York is coming off a bye after posting two straight wins that has it right back in the AFC East title race at 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS). The Jets’ offense is still struggling to consistently run the ball, but Shonn Greene’s 112 yards rushing against San Diego his last time out is a step in the right direction.
Buffalo has cooled off from its 3-0 start with a 2-2 record in its last four games, but it is coming off a solid 23-0 shutout of Washington last Sunday as a four-point home favorite. The Bills’ offense is still averaging over 30 points a game, while their defense is giving-up an average of 21 points.
The road team in this series is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Buffalo. Stick with the Jets to bang-out a big win on the road against their upstate rivals.
The NFL Free Pick: New York 27 Buffalo 24
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders (-7.5)
Instead of everyone focusing on Denver’s woes at quarterback, they should turn their attention to a defense that is ranked 30th in the league in points allowed; giving-up an average of 28.6 points a game. Perhaps this has something to do as well with a 2-5 start both SU and ATS.
Oakland was dealt a dose of reality last week in a 45-10 loss to Detroit as a three-point road underdog, but Hue Jackson’s bunch is still in the thick of the AFC West division race at 4-3 SU (5-2 ATS). The Raiders have already beaten Denver once this season with a 23-20 victory on opening day as three-point road underdogs.
The Broncos are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games against the AFC West and 0-4 ATS in the last four games against the Raiders. Oakland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against the division. The recent trends hold true in this one as the Raiders complete the season-sweep with a comfortable win at home.
The NFL Free Pick: Oakland 24 Denver 13
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