When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 10. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of losses that the San Diego Chargers have ever endured against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. It’s remarkable to think, but regardless of whether the game was played at the old Sombrero Stadium or the newer Raymond James Stadium, the Bolts have never been beaten. That really comes into play this week when these two teams meet up on Sunday, especially knowing that the last time these two met four years ago at this venue, this was the game that put the Chargers into the playoffs.
1.25: The number of touchdown passes per game that QB Matt Stafford is averaging in his career against the Minnesota Vikings. That’s a terrible number this week for the Detroit Lions, who know that they are going to need a great effort out of Stafford to be able to avenge a loss from earlier in the year to the Vikes. Stafford did throw for over 300 yards in that game, but it took over 50 pass attempts to do the job, and not a single pass went for six points. That’s not going to cut it for sure on Sunday.
3: The minimum number of times that QB Michael Vick has been sacked over the course of the last four games. Yes, Vick has been in a nightmarish situation with a terrible offensive line in front of him for the Philadelphia Eagles, and he was sacked seven times last week against the New Orleans Saints. Now coming to town are the Dallas Cowboys and one of the best sack artists of our time, LB DeMarcus Ware. Vick is in a lot of trouble, and the fact that he has such a short rope with Head Coach Andy Reid has to be concerning. There isn’t a quarterback in the world that would be surviving behind this line in this offense, though.
6: The number of consecutive failed covers for the St. Louis Rams on the road as double digit underdogs. That’s the situation that they find themselves in this week against the San Francisco 49ers. Candlestick Park has been a house of horrors for the Rams over the course of the last three years. They were shut out twice in that stretch, and they are 0-3 SU and ATS as well. This doesn’t look good this week for QB Sam Bradford and company.
8: The number of consecutive games in which the New Orleans Saints have allowed at least 400 yards. That’s never been done before in the NFL, let alone to happen in the first eight games of a season. New Orleans is allowing 471.2 yards per game this year, and that’s a number that just isn’t even fathomable for how bad it really is. No wonder why QB Drew Brees has to keep scoring so many points… that’s the only way this team is even remotely staying in games.
11: The number of consecutive times that the New England Patriots have beaten the Buffalo Bills at home. Buffalo has been bad against New England period, but coming here to Gillette Stadium has been a nightmare. You have to go back to 2000 to find the last time the Bills were able to come on the road and beat their biggest divisional rivals, and at that point, QB Tom Brady was just a wee rookie playing behind QB Drew Bledsoe and waiting for his chance to bust onto the scene.
11.5: The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. There are actually three double digit favorites, but the biggest of the bunch is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wonder why? Pittsburgh has won and covered three in a row, while the Chiefs are still waiting for the first official second that they have led in a game this year. KC clearly is one of the worst three or four teams in football, and it is probably going to show on Monday night.
14: The number of years that it has been since QB Vinny Testaverde got his helmet, but not the ball, into the end zone against the Seattle Seahawks. The win got the New York Jets into the second season, and it was the single play in the history of the league that got the ball rolling with instant replay. Now, the Jets and the Seahawks, nearly 14 years later, are going to meet again, but this time, they are in opposite conferences. Once again though, this might ultimately be the deciding factor as to whether either of these teams get into the second season or not.
38.5: The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. There are two games that share the honors this week, and both are amongst the late games on Sunday afternoon. The San Francisco 49ers versus the St. Louis Rams and the New York Jets against the Seattle Seahawks are the two games. These four clubs are amongst the only ones this year that you’d be willing to play a game in the 30s, knowing that all four are the rare run first teams that generally play pretty darn good defense. Rule of thumb though, says that at least one of these is going to end in a shootout, so watch out before you bet!
40.8: The number of points that the Buffalo Bills have allowed to the New England Patriots over the course of the last five meetings. The most recent of the games was the worst, the 52 points that Buffalo conceded at home to the Pats. What’s saddest about that game is that the Bills took a 21-7 lead before just letting New England literally run all over them. The Patriots ended the day with 580 yards, and both RB Brandon Bolden and RB Stevan Ridley had over 100 yards. If the Bills don’t fix their defensive woes, this could be the fourth game this year in which they have allowed at least 45 points.
53: The number representing the highest ‘total’ on the board in Week 10. Of course, it’s no surprise that the New Orleans Saints and their high flying offense are involved once again, and they draw the Atlanta Falcons this week. QB Matt Ryan has an explosive offense as well, and when this unit gets going, it really can’t be stopped either, especially by what amounts to likely be the worst defense in the league. If you like shootouts, this is the game for you for sure on Sunday.
74: The number that represents the percentage of the bets that are coming in on the Denver Broncos this week against the Carolina Panthers. Denver is favored by four points, but the line just hasn’t moved all week in spite of the fact that a ton of bets are. That means that Carolina is the sharpest play on the board of the week, and if it were to pull off this upset, it would at least be thinking about getting back in the discussion for the playoffs in the NFC, while the Broncos would be sliding back towards the rest of the pack in the horrid AFC West.
146:48: The number representing the amount of time that the San Francisco 49ers have gone without allowing a touchdown. Yes, the Niners’ defense is starting to play like the San Francisco defense that we have come to know and love again. The unit only allowed a field goal to the Arizona Cardinals two weeks ago, and they only conceded two field goals against the Seattle Seahawks three weeks ago (last week, they were on bye). The last touchdown scored came with just over 11:48 left in the third quarter against the New York Giants, and even though that game was lost 26-3, it really feels like it was a distant memory. Remember that the two games before that, the Niners had allowed just a total of three points in two games to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills combined.
486: The number of total yards that RB Doug Martin has accounted for over the course of the last two games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s absolutely amazing what this rookie has done, as he has just completely destroyed his lofty expectations to the point that he might seriously be considered for the Rookie of the Year honors over QB Andrew Luck and QB Robert Griffin III, who are both going to rewrite the record books for rookie passers. Martin is going to smash the 1,000-yard mark this year, and he might approach 1,500 as well. 2,000 all purpose yards definitely isn’t out of the question either.
1986: The number representing the last year in which the Kansas City Chiefs won a game in Pittsburgh. Of course, the Pittsburgh Steelers team that they beat at that point was playing at the old Three Rivers Stadium, not Heinz Field, and it doesn’t seem like that’s going to be ending on Monday Night Football this week either. Kansas City really seems overmatched at this point by just about anyone in the league, especially anyone who is playing so well at the moment as the Steelers are.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.