When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 11. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the NFL betting on week 11!
0: The number of games that the New York Jets have ever won against the St. Louis Rams at the Edward Jones Dome. That’s just even worse news for a New York outfit that is clearly just a wreck at the moment, and the inmates that are running the asylum are clearly out of control. QB Tim Tebow has been called out by his teammates anonymously as “terrible” and “hated,” and that’s only making an already torn apart locker room even worse.
1: The number of teams in the NFL that have fewer than three covers this year. Of course, it’s also the number of covers that the Philadelphia Eagles have on the campaign. QB Michael Vick has been a disaster (see: “4”), and now, it is up to a rookie in QB Nick Foles to take over for a team that is on the verge of a franchise altering meltdown. The Eagles are getting 3.5 this week against the Washington Redskins, and more of the public thinks that the drop to 1-8-1 ATS is about to happen for the Eagles than for them to get their second cover of the campaign.
1: The number of points that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by this weekend on the road at the Carolina Panthers. Not only does this make the Bucs the smallest favorite of the weekend as well as one of the five road favorites of the weekend, but it also makes for an interesting footnote. Remember when these teams played in Week 1, Carolina was laying three. Essentially, the Panthers were considered to be six points better than the Bucs on a neutral field at this point, and now, Tampa Bay is considered to be four points better than Carolina on a neutral field, a flip of 10 points in just nine games.
4: The number of starting quarterbacks that started last week’s games that didn’t finish them due to injury. The status of QB Alex Smith looks good, while QB Jay Cutler is considered doubtful at this point. QB Ben Roethlisberger is going to sit this week, and you know that he must be in bad shape if he isn’t going to suit up against the Baltimore Ravens, while the status of QB Michael Vick is clearly the worst. Vick definitely won’t play this week against the Washington Redskins, and he might be sat for the rest of the year as well.
4: The number of consecutive covers that the Indianapolis Colts have playing at Gillette Stadium. Of course, that’s also the number of consecutive games that the Patriots have failed to cover when they are double digit home favorites. They might go off the board as double digit favs in this one, but that isn’t quite so likely. However, there is no denying just how good Indianapolis has been this year under QB Andrew Luck, as he has already tripled his team’s win total from a campaign ago, and he should be well on his way to the Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
5: The number of consecutive covers that the Jacksonville Jaguars have had on the road. They are going to be on the road again this week versus the Houston Texans, and they’re getting a hefty 15.5 point head start as well towards that sixth straight cover. For whatever reason, this team just finds a way to band together and play competitive ball, and we have to wonder if that’s going to happen this week as well against a Houston team that is in a bad sandwich game spot between last week’s win over the Chicago Bears and next week’s Thanksgiving Day game against the Detroit Lions.
6: The number of consecutive games that the Dallas Cowboys have failed to cover at home. That’s bad news for this week and for next week for the Boys, and they badly need to win both of these games against teams that they are going to be favored heavily over. Dallas might ultimately be the best squad in the NFC East, and there is going to be a chance to prove it. There’s a good chance that the Cowboys could be in first place by the end of the month, but it is going to likely take figuring out how to end that dastardly streak of coverless efforts at home for that to happen.
8: The number of consecutive games in which WR AJ Green has scored touchdown for the Cincinnati Bengals. It really hasn’t matter who has been guarding Green, as he is absolutely the only great option that QB Andy Dalton has to throw the ball to. Interestingly enough, Dalton threw four TD passes last week, and just one of them went to Green, so the truth of the matter is that there are clearly some other options that are there. Green though, is clearly the favorite, and if the ball is down close near the goal line, there is no reason to believe that the former Georgia Bulldog isn’t about set to score six points.
9: The number of covers that the Green Bay Packers have in the last 12 games against the Detroit Lions. Of course, the No. 1 could also be in play here, as that’s the number of SU wins that Detroit has in that stretch of clashes. These two are going to meet once again at Ford Field this weekend, and the stakes are going to be high for both clubs. Green Bay can get back into first place in the NFC North with a win and a Chicago Bears loss, while the Lions know that they need to start stringing some wins together, or they’ll be out of the playoff race in the NFC.
15.5: The number of points that the Houston Texans are favored by over the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. That makes Houston the biggest favorite on the Week 11 odds by a relatively comfortable margin in spite of the fact that there are four other spreads featuring teams giving at least 7.5 points. That number could even rise on Monday Night Football if QB Alex Smith plays and QB Jay Cutler doesn’t.
38.9: The number of points per game that the Denver Broncos are averaging in their last 3.5 games. Of course, the turning point for their season came when they scored 35 unanswered points against the San Diego Chargers a month ago, and they are back in the saddle this time around as well against the Bolts. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost all but one game since that point, and the offense has been an absolute disaster.
39: The number of points in the ‘total’ for the New York Jets and St. Louis Rams. For now, this is the lowest ‘total’ on the board, though we fully expect to see the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers open up at least this low as well. The Jets though, are a total wreck offensively, as we have demonstrated before, and they have gone 67+ minutes with scoring an offensive point. It’s not like the Rams can exactly light it up either, knowing that they are averaging less than two offensive touchdowns per game.
54.5: The number of points in the ‘total’ for the New Orleans Saints and the Oakland Raiders this weekend. It’s the highest ‘total’ on the board, and for good reason The Raiders have allowed at least 42 points in two straight games, and both of those clashes came against teams that have modest offenses. Now, the Saints are coming to town with one of the hottest offenses in football, and there might not be any way to stop them.
73.7: The number representing the percentage of games that road favorites have covered in the NFL over the course of the last four weeks of play. There have only been 19 examples, but 14 of the 19 have covered, giving way to some sportsbooks having massive losses to deal with. Road favorites started off the year at 9-22, but they are now back to almost being at the break-even line for the season.
90: The number representing the percentage of games that the home team has won in the series between the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals over the course of the last two decades. The last time these two teams met in the Georgia Dome, it was bad, bad news for the Cards, as they were beaten 41-7, and QB Matt Ryan threw for 225 yards and three TDs in the effort. The home team is 8-2 ATS in those 10 games between these two as well, boding well for those laying the points.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.