When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 12. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of Thanksgiving Day games that the Houston Texans have ever played before today 2012. Of course, this is a season full of firsts for the Texans. It’s the first time they’ve ever started the season at 9-1. It’s the first time that they ever played on Sunday Night Football. It’s the first time they’ve won on Sunday Night Football. It’s likely going to be the first time that they’ve ever had a bye in the first round of the playoffs. It could be the first time that they’ve been in the AFC Championship Game or the Super Bowl as well. And heck, it might be their first ever championship in franchise history as well!
2.0: The number representing the margin of victory in the games between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins over the course of the last four games played here at Dallas Cowboys Stadium. It’s proof that this is a series that is one that is always close. Of course, it’s the first time that QB Robert Griffin III has been involved in the festivities of this series. However, we really don’t think that this is going to make these games any less close.
5: The number of consecutive games that the Chicago Bears have won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings. Of course, this is the first game in quite some time where the Bears are going to be at the severe disadvantage. Chicago is going to quite likely be without QB Jay Cutler once again in this one, and if that’s the case, it’s QB Jason Campbell and a great defense that has looked shoddy of late against a team that might be the hungriest squad in the NFL. This is going to be a tough, tough cover streak to keep going.
6: The number of games that the Dallas Cowboys have beaten the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving Day. More accurately, the number zero is appropriate as well. That’s the number of wins that the Redskins have all-time here in Dallas on Turkey Day. The time could be here for Washington to get the job done, but if it is, it’s going to be as a huge underdog in this one, as RGIII and company are facing a six-point spread.
6: The number of covers that the home team has in the last seven games when the Oakland Raiders and the Cincinnati Bengals have played against each other. Of course, the last time that these two teams played in 2009, QB Carson Palmer was on the other end of this rivalry, as he was slinging the ball around for the Bengals. Now, since being traded out to the Black Hole, he is going to be making his first appearance with his new team against the club that he basically held hostage for the first half of last season.
8: The number of games that feature road favorites this weekend. That means that it’s going to be another week where the sportsbooks could have a big time weekend, or a tremendously bad weekend. Of late, it’s been all bad for the books, as road favorites have been kicking butt. Now, starting with the Houston Texans on Thursday and going all the way through the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, there are road teams that are favored and getting all sorts of betting action on their side.
8: The number of consecutive losses that the Detroit Lions have suffered on Thanksgiving Day. All eight games have resulted in ATS defeats as well. It’s really sad that Detroit has been this bad over the course of the last several years, and it has gotten to the point that there has been some clamoring to get the Lions off of Thanksgiving Day. Still, this is a tradition like few others in the NFL, even if the Lions are the loveable losers. If Detroit is going to break the tradition of losing this year on Turkey Day, it is going to have to come as short underdogs against arguably the best team in the NFL, the Houston Texans.
10: The number of points that the New York Jets have to score in a game in order to cover a spread. They’re 6-0 ATS when they score at least 10 points, but they’re 0-4 ATS when they don’t. What’s more impressive? The fact that 10 points is the key to covering, or the fact that there are already four times this year in which the team has failed to score double digits worth of points? Obviously, at least 10 are going to have to be scored in this one to beat the New England Patriots from an ATS standpoint or from an SU standpoint. This was one of the six games this year against New England the first time around in which the team did score at least 10, and it was a game that was almost won outright as well.
10.5: The number of points that the Denver Broncos are favored by over the Kansas City Chiefs this week. That makes Denver the biggest favorite on the board. The fact of the matter is that the implied number and the actual number are two vastly different things. With home field advantage taken out of the equation, the Broncos would actually be considered 13.5 points better than the Chiefs, which would make them the biggest implied favorite of the season.
13.2: The number of points per game that the Jacksonville Jaguars have scored in their last five games against the Tennessee Titans. Of course, that hasn’t been all bad for the Jags, as they have won two of those five games outright and have covered three in a row. Not surprisingly, that means that the ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five games in this series as well, as the Titans haven’t exactly lit it up in most of these games either.
37: The number of points in the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. The game features the St. Louis Rams and the Arizona Cardinals. And no wonder why after both teams struggled to get anything going when they played the first time around at the Edward Jones Dome. In spite of the fact that Arizona forced six turnovers last week against the Atlanta Falcons, it still only put 19 points on the board. The Cards also became the first team that we can ever remember that benched its quarterback with a 13-0 lead thanks to ineffectiveness. It’s anyone’s guess who is going to be the man calling the shots for the Cardinals on Sunday, and if it’s QB Ryan Lindley, we can definitely understand why this ‘total’ is so low.
51: The number of points in the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. The game pits the Indianapolis Colts against the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo defense has really had its ups and its downs, but it isn’t going to likely hold down QB Andrew Luck and company. And, after allowing 59 points to the New England Patriots, it’s a wonder whether Indy is going to be able to stop the Bills’ offense either. This could turn into a real shootout if Luck and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick get going.
64.0: The number of points per game that the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants have scored in their last three games combined against each other. All three games exceeded the ‘total’, and two of the three made it past the number by a double digit margin. QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Eli Manning are two of the best in the biz, and they combined to lead these teams to over 800 yards of offense last year when these clubs met in the playoffs, and just under 900 yards when they met in the regular season.
109.0: The number representing the minimum quarterback rating for QB Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints in six of his last seven games. Not surprisingly, these are the games that the Saints have been winning after their 0-4 start to the campaign. Brees isn’t quite on a clip this year to throw for over 5,000 yards once again, but would anyone doubt that he’s going to do it again? If Brees keeps up this quarterback rating, especially now that he is going to have RB Darren Sproles back in the fold, he’ll easily get to 5,000 yards for the NFL record third time in his career.
295.5: The number of yards per game that the Philadelphia Eagles have averaged against the Carolina Panthers in their last six outings. That’s a horrifyingly bad number for a team that has been offensive minded over the course of the last several years under the soon to be departed Head Coach Andy Reid. The worse news for this Monday Night Football affair is that QB Nick Foles and the Eagles only mustered 257 yards last week in the rookie’s first career start against a team that had allowed at least 21 points in every single one of its games prior to that one.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.