October 5, 2012

NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 5 Numbers Of Note

When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 5. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!

0: The number of games that the Houston Texans have won against the New York Jets all-time. Yes, history hasn’t treated Houston well against the boys from the Big Apple, and there was even an embarrassing loss in the bunch as well when the Texans were beaten in the first ever game for then rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Of course, now is the time to make amends for that, as a great game by the defense this week, and Houston might be able to get not only its first win against the Jets, but it might be the very last game for Sanchez as well.

0: The number of games that the road team has ever won in the all-time series between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers. That shouldn’t be all that much of a surprise, knowing that this is one of the longer trips that a team is going to have to make in the NFL. It’s not quite Seattle to Miami, but it’s darn close. History will also tell you that both of these teams are pretty darn good home teams, too. The Panthers are favored by a field goal this week over the Seahawks, and that’s important knowing that this is a vital game in the NFC Wild Card chase.

0: The number of games that the San Diego Chargers have lost all-time at the Superdome. Sure, technically the Chargers lost a “road game” to the New Orleans Saints, this week’s foe, back in 2008, but that game was played at Wembley Stadium in London, not in NOLA. The Bolts are three-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football this week, but they have come here and won as pups of right around this size before. Nothing is out of the question, especially knowing that the Saints are 0-4. Which brings us to our next number of note…

1: The number of teams in the history of the NFL to start 0-4 and make the playoffs. The New Orleans Saints are trying to become the second this year, and quite ironically, the team that is going to be on the other side of the field this week is the San Diego Chargers, the one team that successfully made it to the second season after a disaster of an 0-4 start to the campaign. The stars seem to be aligned in the Bayou this week quite a bit, and there is plenty more to talk about with this game as well.

5: The number of times that QB Ben Roethlisberger has turned the ball over in just two games all-time against the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers have some massive things to worry about, knowing that Big Ben still has one of the shoddiest offensive lines in the game, and if a 75.1 quarterback rating doesn’t scare you enough against the Eagles, those five turnovers surely will. Roethlisberger has a lower QB rating against Philly than any other non-NFC East team in the league in his career. The only two teams that he has a worse QB rating against? The Washington Redskins (42.7) and New York Giants (56.4).

6: The number of teams that are favored on the road this weekend. We have already seen one of the six, the Arizona Cardinals drop to the St. Louis Rams on the road, and there could be some others that just end up falling flat. The Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, and Houston Texans are the other five teams that are favored as guests, and the rule of thumb suggests that at least two, if not more of them, will end up losing come Sunday (and Monday in the case of the Texans). Remember that home dogs have gone 14-10 SU this year as well as 15-9 ATS.

9.5: The number representing the highest point spread of the weekend in the NFL. That distinction goes to the San Francisco 49ers, who have everything going for them this week against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo just got shellacked by 24, thanks to the fact that they allowed 45 points in the second half to the New England Patriots, while the Niners just shut out the New York Jets 34-0 in a game that could have (and should have) been significantly worse. Not only that, but Buffalo has to fly all the way out to the Bay Area to prep for this game, and it is going to be good to be back home for San Francisco, which spent 16 straight days away from home to play two road games.

12: The number of consecutive home games (including the playoffs) in which the Kansas City Chiefs have been held to 24 points or fewer. Teams that can’t figure out how to score more than 24 points have a really hard time, especially in the AFC West, winning games. Head Coach Romeo Crennel knows this fact, and that’s why he is considering benching QB Matt Cassel. Cassel has more picks this year (7) than touchdowns (5), and that isn’t going to cut it. This week figures to be the 13th straight home game without scoring more than 24, as the Baltimore Ravens are coming to town.

23: The number of interceptions that QB Peyton Manning has thrown in his career against the New England Patriots. That number is easily the most that he has thrown against any single team, which is really saying something considering how many he has played against the three other teams in the AFC South. This is going to be the first time that Manning has gone against the Pats as a member of the Denver Broncos, but the feel of the game is going to be exactly the same as the ones that he used to play against QB Tom Brady when he was with the Indianapolis Colts.

41: The number representing the lowest ‘total’ on the board in Week 5. The lowest number was actually the 39.5 that ended up on the board between the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals, but in terms of the Sunday slate, the game with the lowest over/under pits the Chicago Bears against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This was a ‘total’ that was in the high-30s at the open and for a good chunk of the week, but that number is starting to creep up very quickly.

47: The number of consecutive games that QB Drew Brees has thrown a touchdown pass in. This is tied for the NFL record, and with one touchdown pass this week, Brees will break the mark that was set by the great QB Johnny Unitas over five decades ago. The fact that this record stood for over 50 years is a heck of a lot of NFL history, and Brees breaking this record, assuming that he does it, is just one further feather in his Hall of Fame cap. To make it sweeter, Brees gets to break the record at home on national television with his suspended coach in attendance. Oh, and the team that he gets to break it against? The San Diego Chargers, who gave up on him as a starter all those years ago when they had a chance to get QB Philip Rivers.

53.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ on the board this week. The game, not surprisingly, is the one between the San Diego Chargers and the New Orleans Saints. There’s just no way to forecast how a defense is going to show up in this game on either side, and with the tricks all needing to come out of the bag for the Saints to win what amounts to be a must win game, you can bet that there will be no shortage of opportunities for QB Drew Brees to get that illustrious touchdown pass that we spoke of earlier.

65: The number that represents the percentage of home favorites that have covered spreads this year. That’s a remarkable number considering the fact that the average is usually right around that 50% mark and is quite often under it. That means that public bettors, who like to bet on favorites, are generally doing well when it comes to betting on home teams, but it also means that there could and should be a collapse of home favorites from an ATS standpoint very soon. The value of home field advantage is quietly being raised just a bit, and it might actually border on 3.5 points for the hometown crowd instead of three.

386: The number of days that it will have been since the last time the Washington Redskins won a home game when they take the field against the Atlanta Falcons. It’s the longest streak in the league, and it isn’t even close. It’s hard to imagine that the Redskins have lost seven straight home games, but what’s even harder to imagine is that they started 2-0 at home last year at FedEx Field before stumbling to six straight defeats, all but one of which came by at least a touchdown.

431: The number of yards that QB Ryan Tannehill threw for last week against the Arizona Cardinals. That left him just one yard shy of the record that QB Cam Newton set last year for the Carolina Panthers. Tannehill only had 615 yards combined over the course of his previous three games, which is what made the game against the stout Arizona defense all the more surprising. Still, Tannehill threw one TD and two picks, and he has just two TDs and six INTs on the campaign, so we have a hard time thinking that he is going to be a big time difference maker when push comes to shove.

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Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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