When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 6. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of teams that are left in the NFL without a single ATS defeat this year. The last team standing was the Houston Texans, who failed to cover in last week’s win against the New York Jets. There are seven teams that have just one ATS loss on the campaign, six of which are 4-1 ATS, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of which are 3-1 ATS.
0: The number of games that the Dallas Cowboys have won or covered against the Baltimore Ravens since they were the Cleveland Browns. The last win in this series against this franchise came way back in 1991 at the Dawg Pound, and the last win in Dallas came back in 1985. The Ravens won the last clash in 2008 as five-point favorites on the road 33-24, and the only time that these two ever met at M&T Bank Stadium before this year was a 30-10 romp in favor of Baltimore in 2004. Quoth the Ravens, Cowboys no more.
2: The number of new starting running backs that we are going to see this week for sure. We already know that we are going to see RB Vick Ballard playing for the Indianapolis Colts, and we are going to see someone – presumably RB LaRod Stephens-Howling starting for the Arizona Cardinals. There have been a ton of running backs suffer injuries for at least short periods of time this year, and it has created a real stir and a need for backs in this league. Don’t be shocked if more teams start carrying more backs in the NFL in the near future.
4: The number of games that a team has won this year when its backup quarterback has had to throw 10 passes or more in a game. QB Shaun Hill is 0-1. QB Matt Hasselbeck is 0-2. QB Kevin Kolb is 4-1, and the argument could and should be made that he should have been the starting quarterback from the start of the season for the Arizona Cardinals. And now it’s the time for QB Brady Quinn to step into the fold and take aim at the elusive win as a legitimate backup quarterback. Quinn will start in place of the injured QB Matt Cassel this Sunday for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.
5: The number of games that the Houston Texans have won in a row to start off their campaign. You’d like, “Oh, big deal, the Atlanta Falcons are 5-0, too.” And you’d be right to think that. However, the Texans have never won more than five games in a row at any point during their franchise history, and they have a chance to best that this week against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
9: The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. The Atlanta Falcons are the only team on the docket that are favored by more than six points, and they are giving nine to the Oakland Raiders. The opportunity really is there for this Atlanta team to make the 1972 Miami Dolphins wait quite some time before popping the cork, and this should be nothing more than a bump in the road. Remember that this Oakland secondary is atrocious, and it is going to have to run up against not just one, not just two, but three receivers that are on a clip to have at least 1,000 receiving yards this year in WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones, and TE Tony Gonzalez.
12: The number of consecutive games that the Indianapolis Colts have failed to cover against teams with losing records. It’s amazing to think just how many losing bets that is in a row in any given situation, but of all situations… Teams with a losing record? QB Andrew Luck and the gang hope to change that this week when the New York Jets come up on the docket, as they are 2-3 and could be on the verge of a disaster here in the AFC playoff picture.
16.5: The number of sacks that DE JJ Watt and LB Clay Matthews have combined this year. The two are going to face on with each other on Sunday Night Football this week, and it is going to be a scary day for both QB Matt Schaub and QB Aaron Rodgers for just that purpose. These two men are angry pass rushers, and when they get around your offensive line, they make sure that your quarterback knows it. These two are the league leaders right now by two and 2.5 sacks respectively over the rest of the field, and we wouldn’t bet against both finding their way to the opposing quarterback on Sunday once again.
25.5: The number that represents the drop in quarterback rating from 2011 to 2012 for QB Aaron Rodgers. And you wonder why the Green Bay Packers are a 2-3 team right now that is struggling just to stick around in the playoff chase in the NFC? In fairness, there really is nothing wrong with Rodgers and his 97.0 QB rating, but when you compare all of these numbers to last year, you have to shake your head. Rodgers is on pace to throw for 722 fewer yards, 15 fewer touchdowns, and six more picks than he did last year, and he is averaging 2.3 yards per pass attempt less than he threw for last year. It’s that 6.9 number that is so terrifying for Rodgers right now, as that would be the worst mark of his career by almost 10% if it were to hold up for the whole campaign.
37.5: The number of points in the lowest ‘total’ on the board in Week 6. That ‘total’ belongs to the St. Louis Rams and the Miami Dolphins, and it comes for good reason. The two teams have a total of just eight passing touchdowns for the year (one of which came from a punter), and the Rams have yet to score a TD on the ground. Five games and no rushing touchdowns is really, really bad, especially when you have a Hall of Fame potential running back in RB Steven Jackson. Throw in two young quarterbacks that have combined for 10 picks and the league’s No. 1 rush defense (Miami), and the makings are there for this to be a low scoring duel.
49: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. With the New Orleans Saints on sabbatical for the week and the Detroit Lions and Tennessee Titans playing teams with unflattering offenses, this is understandably a rare week without a game in the 50s for a ‘total’. The Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers are going to be involved in one of these wacky AFC West battles that could just as easily finish 13-9 as it could 45-42. QB Peyton Manning and QB Philip Rivers are both having great years though, and that’s why the sportsbooks have lined this puppy so high.
102.7: The number representing the quarterback rating that QB Philip Rivers has against the Denver Broncos in his career. That’s a pretty remarkable number over the course of 13 starts, as Rivers has 3,062 yards, 20 TDs, and seven picks in his time against one of his biggest AFC West rivals. He also has a pair of rushing touchdowns to show for his work in those games as well. Rivers is going to need everything that he has to keep up with QB Peyton Manning, who has a great history against the Bolts as well.
498: The number of rushing yards that the New England Patriots have had over the course of the last two weeks. To put that in comparison, the Miami Dolphins have allowed a total of 307 rushing yards for the whole season. RB Brandon Bolden, RB Stevan Ridley, RB Shane Vereen, and RB Danny Woodhead are all getting their cracks at the football, and they are all making them count. You would never think of a QB Tom Brady led team to be one that is averaging 250 yards on the ground, but all of a sudden, that’s what New England has turned into for the time being. And it’s worked! Remember that the Pats now have three straight games scoring at least 30 points.
1986: The number that represents the last year that the Detroit Lions beat the Philadelphia Eagles SU. Yes, when these two teams played in 2010, the Eagles won a 35-32 game in Motown that resulted in a cover for the Lions, but aside from that, they really haven’t even come close. A 2007 meeting ended 56-21 for Philly, and a 2004 clash ended with the Eagles winning 30-13 at the old Pontiac Superdome. The Eagles are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in this series dating back to that very last win in 1986, a very odd 13-11 game.
2,141: The number of all-purpose yards that RB Jamaal Charles is on a clip for this year with the Kansas City Chiefs. Charles has 551 rushing yards and 118 more as a receiver, and though he did a heck of a lot of his damage against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3, he would still have right around 400 yards right now as a rusher if he just had an average game against New Orleans. This week, KC gets a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense which has been prone to giving up oodles of yards an points, and it is going to happen in a game in which QB Matt Cassel isn’t playing. Charles should be called upon a ton.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.