When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 7. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of times that the Houston Texans have beaten the Baltimore Ravens in franchise history. There have been some close calls, and last year’s playoff game might have been a heck of a lot different had the Texans been playing with QB Matt Schaub and DE Mario Williams, but alas, still no victories. Zero would also be the number of times that Houston is expected to beat a time like this one in its history. The Texans know that a win in this game, and the road to the No. 1 seed in the AFC becomes a whole heck of a lot easier when push comes to shove. The Ravens are thinking the same thing though, and that could be a problem for both teams when they collide on Sunday at Reliant Stadium.
0: The number of rushing touchdowns that the Houston Texans have allowed this year. Think that the Baltimore Ravens aren’t talking about that in the locker room and the practice field this week? Last week alone, RB Ray Rice had a pair of short touchdown runs, and this is routinely one of the best and most dangerous rushing attacks in the league. Last week, it was QB Aaron Rodgers that tore apart the Houston defense. This week, could it be Rice that gets the last laugh and becomes the first to score on the ground against this awesome ‘D’? We’ll find out Sunday when these two 5-1 teams meet in the Lone Star State.
3: The number of teams that are averaging less than 300 yards per game so far this year in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars are no surprise, but the other two teams, the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals are both on the verge of the playoffs at the moment. That’s why few think that these two are going to hang around when push comes to shove in the second season race. Last year, there were four teams that made it through the whole season that didn’t average 300 yards per game, and Jacksonville is the only one of these four that are struggling offensively again this year.
4: The number of consecutive games that the Jacksonville Jaguars have covered against the Oakland Raiders. The last two times these two hooked up, the Jags scored 38 and 49 points, resulting in very easy covers. However, here in Oakland, the story has been a little different. There have been three games between these two ever at O.co Coliseum, and the games have featured 19, 29, and 20 total points between the two. With the lack of talent on both sides, this could be another one of these games where both clubs struggle to find the end zone.
6: The number of starters that the Arizona Cardinals might be without in this game against the Minnesota Vikings. We already know that QB Kevin Kolb is going to be out with a rib injury, and T Levi Brown is out for the whole year. RB Beanie Wells is out, and the man that became the starter in place of him, RB Ryan Williams has a shoulder problem that will likely keep him out for the year, too. Add in S Kerry Rhodes, who left last week with a back injury and DE Darnell Dockett, who has a hamstring problem, and it could be bad news in the making for the Cards.
7: The number of consecutive ‘under’ games that the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played against each other. That seems awfully odds considering the fact that both of these teams have had some pretty good offenses over the years, but for whatever reason, Tampa Bay seems to bring its defense to play against one of the best offenses that the league has had. The average points per game between these two in these seven games has been just 41.0 points per game, and though that would lead to a ton of ‘overs’ in a lot of series, not this one. Not nearly. In fact, four of the last seven have featured ‘totals’ of 48.5 or higher, and this is going to be yet another one of those games with a ridiculously high ‘total’.
10.5: The number that the New England Patriots are favored by over the New York Jets on Sunday. Naturally, Head Coach Rex Ryan has been blabbing all week as to how he knows that he has the better team and how the Jets expect to go into Foxboro and walk out with a victory, but let’s be real. Unless New England completely underachieves – something that we know we have seen a lot of this year but don’t expect on Sunday against a division rival – there should be no chance for Gang Green to walk away from this one above .500.
30.5: The number of points per game that the Tennessee Titans have averaged playing against the Buffalo Bills over the course of their last four meetings against each other. Last year, Tennessee scored 23 in this series in Orchard Park, and the two reunite once again. The Titans have had a great history, and they are going to need to figure out how to get the offense going once again if they want to get back in the discussion for the AFC playoff race. Buffalo has had a sieve of a defense, allowing over 45 points three times already on the campaign, including getting outdone by 417 yards two weeks ago by the San Francisco 49ers.
37.5: The number that represents the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. That game is the Thursday night clash between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. It’s the only game of the weekend that has a ‘total’ in the 30s, though it must be noted that the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings only have a ‘total’ on the board right now of 40.5, and that could drop into the 30s as well by the time the ball kicks at Mall of America Field at the HHH Metrodome.
48.1: The number representing the completion percentage for QB Andy Dalton in two games against the Pittsburgh Steelers last year. Dalton didn’t complete even 50 percent of his passes in either of the two games, and he only helped put a grand total of 24 points up in the two games. Dalton threw a pair of picks in the game played here at Paul Brown Stadium between these two. He figures to have an easier time over the course of this one with so many players out for the Steelers on defense. Still, this is an ominous stat for Cincinnati fans, especially off of the two losses in a row to teams that almost surely aren’t going to make the playoffs in the AFC.
50: The number that represents the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. The New York Giants take on the Washington Redskins in that game, and that means that we are going to be seeing two of the more exciting quarterbacks in the league in QB Eli Manning and QB Robert Griffin III. Last year, the Skins got the better of the eventual Super Bowl champs twice, putting a total of 51 points on the board in two games. If you think that New York is going to be held in this one to the 14 or the 10 that they scored last year, you’re crazy, especially with names like LB Brian Orakpo, S Brandon Meriweather, and DE Adam Carriker out of the lineup.
64: The number that represents the percentage of the time that underdogs are covering in the NFL this year. Home dogs are clicking at a 66.7% rate, but this 64.0% is just insane. It has been absolutely remarkable to see all of these underdogs that are able to not just stick inside the number, but win games as well. Heck, 44% of the teams in the NFL that have been underdogs are winning outright.
121.6: The number of yards per game that WR Wes Welker has averaged over the course of the last five games. He has done that on an average of 9.0 receptions per game, and he is looking like the Wes Welker that we all remember. This week, it isn’t going to be DB Darrelle Revis that is going to be hot on Welker’s tail. It will be DB Antonio Cromartie instead. Cromartie was brought to the Big Apple to be one of the best complementary defensive backs in the game, but what New York is finding is that he doesn’t have the ability to be a No. 1 in this league. It could be another huge day for Welker if he and QB Tom Brady are on the same page.
149.8: The number of yards per game that you get when you take the New England Patriots’ offensive stats and compare them to those of the New York Jets. The Brady Bunch is averaging 445.3 yards per game, while the Jets are good for just 295.5 yards per game. Those numbers are good enough to rank 1st and 30th in the NFL respectively, and it is a great example as to why New England is the biggest favorite on the board this week in spite of the fact that these two teams are both 3-3 clubs coming into this one. Heck, QB Tom Brady by himself is averaging 309.0 yards per game, more than the entire New York offense!
755: The number of pass attempts that QB Drew Brees is on pace for this year. That would break the record by over 60 pass attempts. By the way, Brees is also on a clip to throw for 5,504 yards, which would also be an NFL record, breaking the mark that he set last year. Think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are shaking in their boots? They rank second to last in the league in pass defense this year at 312.2 yards per game.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.