When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Week 9. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0: The number of seconds that the Kansas City Chiefs have led in games this season. It is absolutely amazing to think that the Chiefs haven’t had a lead at any point with any time coming off of the clock, but their only win came against the New Orleans Saints in a game that they only led for a single moment in time: The last one, when K Ryan Succop booted the game winning field goal in overtime to end the game.
0: The number of times that the Atlanta Falcons have ever lost when QB Matt Ryan has thrown at least three touchdown passes. Matty Ice has already done it four times this year, and this figures to be at least a possibility, though not a great proposition to happen again this week when he takes on the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has only allowed one quarterback this year to throw for one than one touchdown pass.
3: The number of ‘over’ games in a row in the series between the Dallas Cowboys and the Atlanta Falcons. Both of these teams have done well, so it isn’t anywhere near lopsided even though all three of those games have ended in double digit victories. Dallas has averaged 29.3 points per game, while Atlanta has averaged 25.3 points per game. This could be another high scoring effort, especially if the Cowboys end up having to play catch-up against a high flying offense.
4: The number of road favorites this week in the NFL. The Detroit Lions are the biggest of the bunch at -4.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and they are the biggest implied favorite this week at -7.5 (Houston is right there as well at -7.5 against Buffalo). The Chicago Bears are giving 3.5 to the Tennessee Titans, the Denver Broncos are starting off 3.5 points behind the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Baltimore Ravens are -3.5 against the Cleveland Browns as well.
9: The number of games this week that feature NFL odds of anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 points. We haven’t seen anything like this consistently in the NFL, knowing that there have always been some teams that are a heck of a lot better than others. However, in this very balanced league, where it feels like virtually everyone is either underachieving at 3-4 or overachieving at 4-3 or 5-2, it’s no wonder why the oddsmakers are having a tough time making lines this week.
9: The number of games in a row that the Baltimore Ravens have beaten the Cleveland Browns. Of course, the old Browns are clearly the better of these two teams, but the truth of the matter is that the new Browns have started to play better in this series. The last two games have both ended in covers for Cleveland over Baltimore, but in both games, the Browns were double digit underdogs. This one though, they are only getting 3.5 points, and though it isn’t a matter of having to win outright to cover, it likely does.
10.5: The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. The Houston Texans are the favorite by 10.5 points over the Buffalo Bills, and they are going to be the better of the two teams for sure. The AFC is a giant runaway train, and Houston is going to only try to make things worse and worse for the rest of the league. It’s going to be tough for the Bills to come to Reliant Stadium and post a victory, and they are deserving the biggest dogs on the board.
16: The number of running backs that are on a pace to rush for at least 1,000 yards this year. Last year, there were 15, and of those 15, four aren’t amongst the ones to rush for at least 1,000 this year. For all that has been made about how this is a passing league, there are still a number of backs that have the potential to have tremendous impacts on their teams this year, and that might see a slight decrease in scoring as the year goes on.
19.6: The number representing the average margin of victory from a spread standpoint when the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks meet up. If you like teasing games, this clearly isn’t the one for you, as history suggests that this one, one way or the other, won’t finish anywhere near that four-point set of NFL odds that the oddsmakers have posted for this week.
24.5: The number representing the average margin of victory from a spread standpoint when the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers duke it out over the course of the last four meetings of these teams. And you thought matters were bad for the Vikings and Seahawks? The last meeting of these clubs ended with Oakland covering by 18 points, and of course, the Super Bowl could not be forgotten either when Tampa Bay knocked off the Raiders by 27 points as a 3.5-point underdog.
39: The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. That goes to the Seattle Seahawks and the Minnesota Vikings, both of which are teams that are more defensive oriented than offensive oriented. The Vikes haven’t had all that much success on the road with their offense this year, and now they have to go to CenturyLink Field, where they are taking on a team with arguably the best home field advantage in football.
51.5: The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. That game pits the New Orleans Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles against one another. New Orleans is coming off of its most dismal offensive effort in quite some time against the Denver Broncos, a game in which it was outdone by 278 total yards and scored just 14 total points. That was the second time this year that the Saints were outdone by at least 220 yards in a game, and that doesn’t bode well against the Eagles.
57.2: The number of points per game that the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints have scored against each other over the course of the last five meetings. The last clash in 2009 was the particularly big one, as there were 71 points scored and just under 900 yards of total offense put up. Unfortunately for the Eagles, 48 of those points were scored by the boys from the Bayou.
96: The number of points that the Green Bay Packers and the Arizona Cardinals scored the last time that these two teams met. That was in the 2010 playoffs, and at the time, QB Kurt Warner was the man calling the shots. Unfortunately for Arizona, Warner is gone, and QB John Skelton is throwing passes now. Skelton might be a great name for playing a game on Halloween weekend, but for beating the Packers? Not so much.
176.9: The number of yards per game that the Buffalo Bills are allowing on the ground this year. Buffalo is going to have a terrible matchup here against the Houston Texans on the road. The Texans are sixth in the NFL in rushing at 140.9 yards per game, and they have one of the top rushers in the league in RB Arian Foster, who leads the league with 10 total touchdowns. Foster absolutely has to have at least 100 yards when push comes to shove in this one, and that would really put Buffalo behind the 8-ball with any hopes of an upset.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.