NFL Betting By the Numbers: Super Bowl 48
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for the Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the biggest game of the season!
0 – The number of times which the Seahawks have won the Super Bowl in their history. They have only been to the big one once all time, and they were beaten in Detroit by the Pittsburgh Steelers that day. That’s the one fear which we have for these Seahawks. They don’t have a whole heck of a lot of Super Bowl experience between all of the players on the roster because the franchise just hasn’t had a chance to play in the big one. Though none of these Broncos were around a decade and a half ago when they were last in the big one, there are plenty of players, notably QB Peyton Manning, who has been in this game more than once before in life.
1 – The number of touchdown passes which Manning has thrown in each of his two Super Bowl appearances. The one touchdown was good enough in the win over the Chicago Bears to earn him the Super Bowl MVP award, but the one touchdown against the New Orleans Saints just a few seasons ago was only good enough to earn a loss against QB Drew Brees, who was far superior on that day. Manning is coming off of a season where he crushed the record for the most touchdown passes in a single season in NFL history, and he is also coming off of a game where he threw for the most yards in conference championship game history in the NFL as well with 400. He’s going to need a heck of a lot more than just one touchdown to win the Super Bowl or the Super Bowl MVP this time around.
2 – The number of head coaches who have won both the National Championship in college football and the Super Bowl in the NFL. Both coaches had to go through the Dallas Cowboys to do it, as Barry Switzer won with Dallas and with the Oklahoma Sooners, while Jimmy Johnson did it with Dallas and the Miami Hurricanes. Now, it’s up to Pete Carroll to be the next in line to take that honor, and he is the only coach in the NFL right now who can stake a claim to both titles. Carroll of course, finished the collegiate side of this duo with the USC Trojans, and now, he would love nothing more than to take home his first Lombardi Trophy with these Seahawks.
2 – The number of times which the Broncos and Seahawks have won the Super Bowl combined in their history in seven tries. There are five losses between them and just two wins to show for their work, but one of them is going to end up finding their way to victory. There are only 12 franchises in NFL history who haven’t won the Super Bowl of the 32 in existence, and Seattle is going to attempt to shrink that list down to 11 when Super Sunday is said and done with.
2.5 – The number which represents the point spread in Super Bowl 48. It’s only the fourth time which the game has been lined at less than a field goal in 48 tries, and the Broncos have to be happy knowing that two of the previous three teams which were favored by between 1 and 2.5 points went on to win the game and cover the spread. This is only the second time in the last decade in which the favored side has been getting the nod by less than a touchdown, though the underdog team has ultimately gone on to win three of the last six Super Bowls as well.
4 – The number of games which Manning has won when the game-time temperature has been at freezing or colder. It’s anyone’s guess whether the game will actually be played in weather conditions colder than 32 degrees at kickoff, but regardless, Manning has to be worried about the cold. He is just 4-7 all-time in games in which the temperature is at freezing or below, though two of those four games were won this year with his Broncos. Perhaps playing in Denver has gotten Manning more accustomed to playing in harsh conditions, those of which he never faced at home when he was with the Indianapolis Colts. This has to be a horrid setting for a Super Bowl for Manning, who won his game in the Sunshine State.
5 – The number of quarterbacks who have played in the Super Bowl before who are younger than QB Russell Wilson. Wilson is going to take over QB Colin Kaepernick, who was the sixth youngest quarterback to play in a Super Bowl last season for the San Francisco 49ers. There are only two quarterbacks who were younger than Wilson who actually went on to win the Super Bowl in their first career starts, those being QB Tom Brady in his first start with the New England Patriots in the big one, and QB Ben Roethlisberger, who had immediate success with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rest of the starting quarterbacks who were under the age of 27 who started in the Super Bowl all generally had very, very poor games, and Wilson is definitely a threat to be the same way in this one.
6 – The number of men who have coached two different teams to the Super Bowl in league history. Head Coach John Fox became the sixth, taking the Broncos here after doing so with the Carolina Panthers a decade ago. Fox has definitely proven worthy of the test of time, though he still has yet to actually wrap his hands around a Lombardi Trophy. He’s got a shot to do so on Super Sunday, and he really wants to avoid being the first coach in the league to coach two different teams to Super Bowls and not ultimately win the award with at least one of the two. Interestingly enough, there isn’t a single coach in the league who has won multiple Super Bowls with multiple teams multiple times each, and there isn’t a man who has taken two teams to Super Bowls and gone undefeated with both teams.
10 – The number representing the ranking of the Philadelphia Eagles’ rush defense this year. Why is that so notable? Because it is the only time this season which the Broncos faced off with a team which had a Top 10 rush defense in the NFL. That’s amazing to think, but it’s the truth, and it might be why RB Knowshon Moreno ended up being a 1,000-yard back on the campaign. The Broncos are facing a Seattle defense which, though it ranks just eighth in the league against the run, certainly has one of the best front sevens that the league has to offer. This could be an awfully tough task for the Broncos and their ground attack.
26 – The number of times over the course of the previous 47 Super Bowls that the winning quarterback won the MVP award. That’s a great sign for both QB Peyton Manning, who is +130 and QB Russell Wilson, who is +350 to take home the Super Bowl MVP honors. The last time a running back won the award was in 1998, ironically when the Broncos were in the Super Bowl, and the last time someone aside from an offensive player won it was back when Ray Lewis led the Baltimore Ravens to their first ever championship in one of the ugliest Super Bowls you’ll ever see against the New York Giants.
37 – The number representing the forecasted temperature for Super Sunday at MetLife Stadium. There is a 30 percent chance of snowy weather conditions, and that could make matters awful for the two teams if it were to play out that way with some white stuff on the ground. The coldest Super Bowl ever was 39 degrees in New Orleans when the game was played at Tulane Stadium in Super Bowl 6. There hasn’t been a Super Bowl with a game-time temperature below 59 degrees since Super Bowl 19 when it was played at Stanford Stadium, where the game-time temperature was just 53 degrees. This is still a far cry from that, as it is the first outdoor Super Bowl being played in a cold weather city where the NFL absolutely knew that the weather conditions were going to be awful.
47 – The number representing the ‘total’ in Super Bowl 48. This is one of the lower ‘totals’ which we have seen in recent history in the Super Bowl, but relatively speaking, it is a high ‘total’ for a Super Bowl as well. ‘Overs’ and ‘Unders’ have alternated over the course of the last six seasons, and if that trend holds up, this one won’t reach the number. Last season’s Super Bowl featured 65 points. This one only needs to get to seven touchdowns to get past the number, which opened up at 48 and has since dropped a point.
70 – The number representing the percentage of the bets which have come in on Denver since the Super Bowl odds opened up last Sunday. We’re still over a week away from the big one, so this could change quite a bit. That being said, the Broncos have steamed up from a pick ‘em to -2.5, and though that isn’t that big of a swing by moneyline standards, it’s a tremendous swing by Super Bowl standards. Seattle is likely going to settle into being a sharp play if this 70 percent number continues to hang on the board.