NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 11
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 11. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of times that QB Nick Foles, QB Case Keenum, and QB Jason Campbell have been picked off this season… combined. These are three of the more prominent backup quarterbacks who have gotten extended time and taken over for ineffective starters, and they have all had varying degrees of success in the win column. Foles is leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the lead in the NFC East through 10 games. Campbell has his Cleveland Browns just a game and a half back of the lead in the AFC North, but Keenum has yet to win a start, not at his own fault, and his Houston Texans are four games back of the lead in the AFC South.
0 – The number of games that OT Russell Okung and OL Breno Giacomini have played since the end of September. Both could be back this week against the Minnesota Vikings, and that’s bad news for the rest of the league. The Seattle Seahawks have really started to get their ground game going with RB Marshawn Lynch, who has games of 125 and 145 yards in his last two weeks, both of which were season highs at the time. Lynch only had 601 yards in his first eight games of the year, and now, he is starting to get his offensive linemen back. Add in WR Percy Harvin, who is set to be making his debut with his new team, and the Seahawks are getting a lot more dangerous by the day.
2 – The number of rushing yards that the Miami Dolphins had last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only is that embarrassing all on its own, but the fact that it came against a team that was winless in the first half of the season makes it all the more unbearable. What we have to remember with Miami and this whole OG Richie Incognito thing is that the Fins have lost two of their offensive linemen in their rotation, both of which were solid run blockers. T Jonathan Martin and Incognito probably won’t be seen again this year, and they certainly won’t be heard from this week against the San Diego Chargers. RB Lamar Miller and the ground attack badly need to be better than this if there is any hope of getting back in the playoff race.
2.5 – The number of yards per carry the Baltimore Ravens are getting out of RB Ray Rice this year. Rice has been abysmal, to say the least. He has rumbled for just 47 yards on 29 carries in his last two games, and we are pointing the finger at the offensive line. Sure, there is a point in every running back’s career where he just hits a wall and declines like crazy. We would think that Rice might be at that point, but RB Bernard Pierce, a significantly fresher back with just two seasons under his belt, is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. The ground game is what is separating this year’s Ravens from the Ravens that won the Super Bowl last season, as the defense is really starting to play well enough to carry this team if the offense can take care of the pigskin.
3.97 – The number of yards per pass attempt that QB EJ Manuel had last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s clear that the Bills are keeping the training wheels on Manuel, who probably shouldn’t be playing at this point. Perhaps he isn’t healthy enough to effectively be giving it a go, but perhaps he was just playing in a tough position as well. It was as windy as could be at Heinz Field last week, and the Pittsburgh Steelers looked like the old Steelers defensively. Manuel only went 22-of-39 for 155 yards in the whole game, but he went 11-of-14 for 76 yards on the last drive of the game when things were essentially out of reach. 11-of-25 for 89 yards isn’t going to cut it for the first three and a half quarters of any game.
5 – The number of consecutive 100+ yard receiving games that WR AJ Green of the Cincinnati Bengals has had. Of course, last week’s 100+ yard performance probably should have never happened, as it ended with a Hail Mary touchdown grab from 51 yards out on the final play of regulation against the Baltimore Ravens. Still, this offense is only going as far as Green takes it, and Head Coach Marvin Lewis and Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden know it. Green and the Bengals have a date this week with the Cleveland Browns, who absolutely shut them down the last time these two teams played almost two months ago.
6 – The number of consecutive games that the San Diego Chargers had covered after an SU defeat before losing last week to the Denver Broncos. This has proven to be a resilient team all season long, and it has done so in some really tough spots. Last week, the Bolts were down by three scores to Denver before clawing back into the game, and this week, they have to come to the East Coast to take on the Miami Dolphins after the consecutive losses. Remember though, that this is a team that had to play on a short week against the Philadelphia Eagles on the other side of the country in Week 2 after losing on Monday Night Football and blowing a three-touchdown lead to the Houston Texans. If the Chargers can win a game like that against an offense that is one of the most explosive in the league, it can win this one as well.
7 – The number representing the longest losing streak in the NFL right now. The Houston Texans only lost a total of nine games over the course of the last two seasons, but they have gotten mauled this year seven times in a row. Houston though, has only lost its last three games by a combined seven points, and that isn’t going to cut it. The team has yet to cover a game this year that it won, and it hasn’t covered a game in which it is favored. All of that is going to have to change this week if it is going to beat the Oakland Raiders, whom it is favored over by – you guessed it – seven points.
13.5 – The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. The Minnesota Vikings are getting the nearly two TDs against the Seattle Seahawks, and deservedly so. Minnesota did beat the Washington Redskins last week, but these Seahawks are awfully good. They have been challenged quite a bit of late, but they aren’t losing games, and they seem poised to blow someone out of the water. This seems like the perfect candidate for a 42-10 beat down if you ask us.
26 – The number of passing yards the Kansas City Chiefs had last season when they went on the road and lost to the Denver Broncos 38-3. That was just the end of what was a horridly disappointing season, and it ensured that they would end up with the top pick in the NFL Draft. QB Brady Quinn was a disaster that day, and the whole offense just never stood a chance against a Denver team that was playing for the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season. We guarantee more success in the passing game than that this week, as QB Alex Smith and the Chiefs put their perfect record on the line against the Denver Broncos.
40 – The number of first downs that the New Orleans Saints had last week against the Dallas Cowboys. That’s just ridiculous. New Orleans had nearly 300 rushing yards and nearly 400 passing yards on the day, and that’s just never going to happen again when you think about it. QB Drew Brees and his offense are fantastic, but they aren’t good enough to do this week in and week out. We know that the San Francisco 49ers are going to put up a better fight this week at the Mercedes Benz Superdome.
40.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the week. The game pits the Buffalo Bills against the New York Jets, and we are wondering why this number is so low. Sure, neither one of these teams have the most explosive offenses in the world, and both have better defenses than they have offenses, but when these two played earlier this season, the Jets racked up over 500 yards of offense. This should be a good battle in Orchard Park, as both of these teams still have to think they have a shot to get into the playoffs this year. Buffalo has a lot more work to do, and getting the aforementioned QB EJ Manuel right is a big part of that, but no one is out of it yet in the AFC, save for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
52.5 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the week. The game pits the Washington Redskins against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles ran off 55 snaps in the first half of their game against Washington on the road in Week 1 of the season, and they are going to try to do more of the same in this one. QB Nick Foles continues to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and if not for the fact that QB Peyton Manning has been doing things that no quarterback has ever done before, Foles would perhaps be the league’s MVP right now. QB Robert Griffin III has been a significantly better quarterback in the second part of the season than he was in the first month of the year, and that might make a big difference in this game as well.
57 – The number of total points that the Carolina Panthers have allowed over the course of their last five games, each of which have resulted in wins. The argument could be made that this is the best defense in the NFL right now, and it started two seasons ago when LB Luke Kuechly, one of the most decorated linebackers in college football history, was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. Carolina was playing against a bunch of pathetic teams in a row before taking on the San Francisco 49ers last week on the road, and that was the game that really turned people’s heads. If the team can beat the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football this week, it will be official: The Panthers will be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
73.8 – The number of rushing yards per game that the New York Jets are allowing this season. Why is this such a big number to note this week? Because the Buffalo Bills are really going to be relying heavily on a ground attack that is averaging 140.7 yards per game. If the Jets can figure out how to play to their strength and force QB EJ Manuel to put the ball in the air, this won’t be a particularly close game at Ralph Wilson Stadium. If the Bills can get something going with RB Fred Jackson and RB CJ Spiller though, this could end up being a heck of a game when push comes to shove in the AFC East.