NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 12
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 12. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of times the Carolina Panthers have ever beaten or covered a game against the Miami Dolphins in their history. Granted, that history is only spanning over four games, but it is still becoming an impressive number nonetheless. Carolina though, has the longest winning streak in the NFL going at six games, and it is the team du jour across the league. Many figure that even the trip to South Beach shouldn’t be all that much of an issue.
1 – The number of carries that RB Adrian Peterson has had go for more than 20 yards in his last five games. That’s an insanely low number for a man who figured to threaten the 2,000-yard mark once again this year. “All Day” has had himself a solid year, and he is going to turn in amazing numbers again when it’s all said and done with, but he has to break off more big carries if the Vikes are going to win games. The team is just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS over the course of those five games, and if you go back and look at the games which Minnesota was at its best last year, those were the ones where Peterson was ripping off his longest carries.
1 – The number of covers the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have in their last nine games against the Detroit Lions dating back to when these teams used to share the old NFC Central together. The Bucs have been absolutely terrible in this series for whatever reason, and it is actually remarkable considering the fact that they have been relevant for the most part, while Detroit until these last few years has been anything but. The roles are reversed on Sunday, as the Lions are the heavy 9.5-point favorites.
1 – The number of covers the New York Jets have in their last nine games against the Baltimore Ravens. There isn’t an echo in this article. That stat is correct on both accounts. In fact, the Jets don’t have an SU victory over this franchise since it was known as the Cleveland Browns. New York has the better record of these two teams in this one, but it is the short underdog against the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. If there was ever a chance to break this bad streak, now would be it. Quoth the Raven, nevermore.
2 – The number of offensive touchdowns generated by QB Scott Tolzien in his time as a starter for the Green Bay Packers. That’s bad. Awfully, awfully bad. QB Aaron Rodgers is used to putting 30+ points on the board every single game for the Pack, and with the way Tolzien is going, it isn’t a wonder why Green Bay is on the wrong side of the playoffs. It doesn’t seem like Rodgers is going to be ready to return in this one, and if he isn’t, the Minnesota Vikings have to be licking their chops about the idea of perhaps getting a rare win on the road.
2 – The number of undrafted rookie free agent quarterbacks which have started games this year already. The Buffalo Bills started QB Jeff Tuel out of Washington State, while the Oakland Raiders started QB Matt McGloin from Penn State last week. The cool thing about McGloin starting against the Houston Texans is that he was also going against a man who once was an undrafted rookie free agent signing, QB Case Keenum. It was the first time since 1981 and only the second time in NFL history that two men who went undrafted started against each other at quarterback in the same game.
8 – The number of consecutive losses that the Houston Texans have incurred. Amazingly, this is the longest streak in franchise history, which is saying something for a team that went through its share of problems back in the middle of last decade. Things are getting salty now for a team which should have easily won the AFC South this year, as WR Andre Johnson and QB Matt Schaub were caught getting into it on the sidelines after last week’s loss to the Oakland Raiders. If #80 isn’t happy, the Texans don’t have control of their entire team, and right now, #80 isn’t amused. This long season is only getting longer. Houston, we have a problem.
8.3 – The number of points per game that the San Francisco 49ers have scored in games this year against teams which have 7-3 records or better. They are averaging 32.6 points per game against everyone else which they play. That’s great news for this week against the Washington Redskins, but considering the fact that it is going to take at least 11 wins to ensure a playoff spot in the NFC this year (everywhere outside of the NFC East, anyway), that means these Niners need to figure out how to get some things going against good teams offensively. Perhaps letting QB Colin Kaepernick put the ball in the air a bit would help, seeing how the 49ers have the worst passing offense in the NFL.
9 – The number of teams in the AFC which are reasonably fighting for the last Wild Card spot. Figure that the Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos all have playoff spots pretty much wrapped up in some given order. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are level at 5-5 for that last spot, but all hell has broken loose behind that. Literally everyone except for the Jacksonville Jaguars and reasonably, the Houston Texans should have a shot to be in the fray, and it is going to be wild to try to figure out who will actually win every tiebreaker scenario as we move on through the rest of the season.
14.9 – The number of yards per punt return the Indianapolis Colts are allowing thus far this year. P Pat McAfee doesn’t let many get down from the sky quick enough to be returned, but when they have been returned, they have proven to be dangerous. Just ask WR Tavon Austin how easy it is to do damage against this punt return unit. This week, the Colts have to go up against DB Patrick Peterson, who is largely accepted as one of the most dangerous punt returners that the league has to offer, though he has yet to break one yet this season.
54 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ on the board this week. The game pits the New England Patriots up against the Denver Broncos. The Pats could be without all three of their top corners in this game, and that would have QB Peyton Manning salivating. Still, we all know why this ‘total’ is so high. Manning against QB Tom Brady. Two surefire first ballot Hall of Famers going at each other. What could be better on Sunday Night Football?
82.4 – The number representing the completion percentage QB Tom Brady has had to TE Rob Gronkowski over the course of the last two games. The rest of the team, that percentage is under 50%. It is clear if the New England Patriots have any chance to get the ball going with the passing game, it’s going to be on the back of Gronk, not on the back of Brady getting the ball to all of his other significantly lesser options. And if you think the team can get away without a ton of passing this week against the Denver Broncos, you’re crazy.
131 – The number of rushing yards that RB Ray Rice had last week for the Baltimore Ravens against the Chicago Bears. Granted, that came against a bad Bears defense which has still allowed 20 or more points to every single team that it has faced this year. However, Rice only had a total of 126 yards in his previous four games combined. Getting him started is going to be the key to getting the Ravens back in the playoffs this year, so at least it was a welcome sign for the men in black and purple.