November 28, 2013

NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 13

VietBet.comWhen you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 13. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!

0 – The number of snaps that San Francisco 49ers LB Ahmad Brooks thinks that Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III should be taking right now. It’s not really a quantitative stat as we like to give you here at Bang the Book, but this was one of the most quotable quotes of the year, and there is definitely something to it. RG3 is down this year. Period. He is running less, he is averaging fewer yards per carry, he is being forced to put the ball in the air more, and when he does it, he is throwing more picks and throwing for fewer yards. There just aren’t as many explosive plays for this Washington offense, and that’s why most believe that Head Coach Mike Shanahan should be fired and QB Kirk Cousins should be given a chance to prove what he can do the rest of the way.

1 – The number of offensive touchdowns the New York Jets have scored in their last 31 possessions with the ball. QB Geno Smith is clearly the man to blame for a lot of this, but the bottom line is that this offense is just downright bad. Smith has gone three straight games with less than a 43% completion percentage, and that is going to get him killed, especially knowing that he doesn’t have the weapons to throw those bombs 40+ yards down the field either. It’s getting ugly in the Big Apple, but at least the Jets are still 5-6 and in a position to win their way into the postseason.

5 – The number of games that the St. Louis Rams have covered in their last seven against the San Francisco 49ers. We all know that this first meeting of the season was one of the exceptions to the rule, as San Fran dominated in a 35-11 victory. However, we have already seen the Rams go on the road and punk both the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts in recent weeks, and this might not be an exception. Remember that both of the meetings of these two NFC West foes went to overtime last year, and St. Louis went 1-0-1 in those two outings. This is definitely a winnable game in spite of the fact that the Rams are big underdogs.

6 – The number of first half point spreads the Indianapolis Colts have failed to cover in their last seven games. This is a team which has had all sorts of problems trying to figure out how to get the ball rolling in the first half, and the truth of the matter is that there have only been three good quarters of football played since the team lost WR Reggie Wayne to a torn ACL just before its bye week. QB Andrew Luck and the gang though, can still essentially clinch up the AFC South title on Sunday if they can figure out how to sweep the season series from the Titans, who are the only challengers that are still mathematically able to run down the Colts at this point in the season.

9 – The number representing the biggest favorites of the weekend. The game is on Thursday between the Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, and this is one of those games where there are absolutely no excuses whatsoever for QB Tony Romo. Simply put, you have to beat QB Matt McGloin in a home game on a short week when your playoff hopes and the division title are riding on the line. It doesn’t matter what else happens on the field. Romo just has to figure out how to win this game by whatever means necessary.

14 – The number of wins that the Green Bay Packers have in their 34 games playing on Thanksgiving Day. They have had a history of playing games against the Lions on Thanksgiving, including two seasons ago when they won 27-15 in a game that was never all that close. Still, a 14-18-2 record in 34 games isn’t very strong, and it isn’t a good omen for Head Coach Mike McCarthy and the gang going into Ford Field.

20 – The number representing the speed the winds are expected to be blowing in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. It’s still a relatively early forecast, but this is officially the start of all of these winter games in the NFL that we all know and love. Neither of these teams reached 300 yards when these clubs played against each other in October, and Mother Nature isn’t going to make it any easier in this one. Remember that there were seven field goals kicked in that first game. If the kicking game is a big part of it again in this one, the winds could make this an easy ‘under’ contest.

27 – The number of rushing yards that RB Lamar Miller has had in his last three games combined. Twenty-one carries. Twenty-seven yards. That’s awful news for a team which is about set to go up against one of the best front sevens in all of football, that of the New York Jets. What’s worse though, is that RB Daniel Thomas is out for the season after getting injured last week. There’s a reason that Head Coach Joe Philbin has only carried two legitimate running backs all season long on his team, though RB Marcus Thigpen has gotten spot duties when necessary. RB Mike Gillislee fell out of favor in the preseason when he just couldn’t open up any holes. Now, he is going to have to be the complementary back for a man who has had nothing going in his own right.

38.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. With all of the badmouthing we have done about RB Lamar Miller and QB Geno Smith, are you really surprised that the game we are referencing is the duel between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets? Remember that Mother Nature could have her say in this one as well, as this is going to be a cold atmosphere for the warm weather Dolphins to be playing in. There’s a lot of defense on these two teams, and there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of offense to balance that out.

49.5 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. You’d think that we would be mentioning a game involving the New England Patriots or the Denver Broncos or the Philadelphia Eagles, but they are all playing teams with stellar defenses, and two of the three are on the road. No, the game we are discussing is the one between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, in some parallel universe, QB Josh McCown and QB Christian Ponder are going to be squaring off in what amounts to be the game of the week with the highest expected ‘total’. When you really look at it though, Minnesota has allowed at least 26 points in five straight games, and the Bears still haven’t had a game this year in which they have allowed fewer than 20 points. The makings are ripe for this one to get into the 60s, just as it did the first time that these two met in September.

58.0 – The number of rushing yards that the Jacksonville Jaguars have surrendered in their last three games. It’s no wonder why all of a sudden, they have become a competent team again. The big complaint is that Jacksonville was not only being subjected to having less talent, but it was getting outworked on both sides of the line of scrimmage. At least some of those battles are going the other way now. Add in the fact that RB Maurice Jones-Drew has scored a rushing touchdown in three straight games, and there is a good argument that the Jags not only aren’t the biggest laughing stock we’ve seen in some time, but they might not even be the worst team in the NFL either.

131 – The number of yards that RB Marshawn Lynch rushed for in the playoff game for the Seattle Seahawks against the New Orleans Saints two seasons ago. That was the last time that these two teams met, and it was the beginning of the end for basically every other team which ever stepped foot into CenturyLink Field again at that point. The Seahawks have really taken off, and they have been dominating at home, and this week is going to be no exception. Seattle has some cornerback issues, which could be a problem against QB Drew Brees, but remember that Brees and the gang accounted for almost 500 yards and 38 points in that playoff game. These Seahawks are significantly better than that team which barely went 7-9 to win the NFC West, and they are going to try to essentially lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs this week when these two teams meet on Monday Night Football.

286 – The number of yards that the Detroit Lions had when they played the Green Bay Packers the first time around this season. It was a long day for sure for Detroit, but we have to remember that WR Nate Burleson and WR Calvin Johnson didn’t play in that game. Now, it is Green Bay which has all sorts of injury woes, as QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 274 yards against the Lions, and WR Randall Cobb, who had 107 total yards of offense on the day, are both out of the fold for this one. The Packers are facing a must-win this week if they want to stick around in the NFC North race and in the chase for a Wild Card slot, and without Rodgers out there, it is going to be awfully tough to do so, especially in Motown on Thanksgiving Day, traditionally the biggest game of the year.

362 – The number of receiving yards that WR Josh Gordon has over the course of his last two games for the Cleveland Browns. It’s remarkable that Gordon is going to get to 1,000 yards on the season this week. He was suspended for the first two games of the campaign, and he has had to deal with this progression of quarterbacks this year… Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, and Brandon Weeden. We can only imagine what Gordon would be able to do if he could get the support of even a halfway decent quarterback in Cleveland.

491 – The number of yards which the San Diego Chargers put up last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. Remember, there was very reason in the world for San Diego to give up in that game. The team had lost three straight, and it was on the road against one of the best teams in the league. This KC defense was supposed to be unflappable, but in the end, QB Philip Rivers, having one of the best years of his career, threw for 392 yards and three TDs, including tossing a pair of long touchdowns in the last eight minutes of the game to keep his squad’s season alive.

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Adam Markowitz

is a staff writer living in the Orlando area. He has covered NFL, MLB, college football, CFL, AFL, NBA, college basketball, NASCAR, golf, tennis, and the NHL for a number of various outlets in his career, and he has been published by a number of different media outlets, including the Orlando Sentinel and the Wall Street Journal.

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