NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 3
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 3. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of teams that made the playoffs last year that started off the campaign at 0-2. It has happened before, but history isn’t really on the side of any of these teams. For the Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, and Minnesota Vikings, teams that either made or contended for playoff spots last year, the 0-2 start to the year was really unexpected and certainly not taking well. All four of these head coaches are clearly on the hot seat, and another loss this week will be catastrophic. The Skins and the Giants are both underdogs this week, but at least the good news for both of these teams is that no one is running away with the NFC East title.
0.28 – The number representing the percentage of the time since 2002 that teams have won games when turning the ball over four times or more in a game. The New York Giants have already played in two of these games, and they are 0-2 SU and ATS in those clashes. Teams are now 8-275 when turning the ball over four or more times in the last 10+ seasons, and there are sure to be a lot more situations like this over the course of the year. When you see these situations arise when teams could be turning the ball over a ton, be sure to check out this trend.
2.5 – The number of points the Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears are all favored by as of Wednesday night. Why is this notable? Because these three teams are all going on the road against AFC North foes. The opponents are the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers respectively. Remember when there was a time that the AFC North was considered one of the best divisions in football? Heck, all three of these teams made the second season two years ago, and Cincy and Pittsburgh battled it out for the last playoff spot last season as well. Now, the division as a whole has just two wins in two weeks, and both of those wins came in division games. Now, all four of the clubs in the AFC North are dogs once again, and there is a real chance that the teams are going to be a combined 0-8 outside of division through three weeks of play this year.
4 – The number of times that the Pittsburgh Steelers have ever been underdogs at home with QB Ben Roethlisberger under center in his career. There have been a few situations in which the Steelers were underdogs at home in games in which Roethlisberger didn’t play, but in the games that he sat, the results are clear. Pittsburgh hasn’t been an underdog in a game at home with Big Ben playing since the 2008 playoffs against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the last time the team was a dog in the regular season with Roethlisberger starting at quarterback was back in his rookie season, nearly nine full years ago.
6 – The number of rushing yards that the New York Giants held Carolina Panthers’ QB Cam Newton to when they played each other last season. Ironically, the game is going to be held a year nearly to the exact day of their Week 3 meeting in Charlotte last year, a game that New York won 36-7. Newton is going to need to get the ball moving on the ground with either Newton or RB DeAngelo Williams if they want to beat the G-Men in this battle of 0-3 teams, but the speedsters that fly over the New York defense could be in for yet another really good day.
8 – The number of times that the San Diego Chargers have covered against the Tennessee Titans since the 1993 season. The Bolts have never been beaten in Nashville in their history, as their only losses to the Titans franchise actually comes back when the team was the Houston Oilers. It’s interesting that we’re bringing up Houston here, as both of these teams were beaten by the Houston Texans this year already. Both had leads in the fourth quarter, and the combined margin that these two teams blew was 29 points in the second halves of those clashes.
9 – The number of teams that are favored by somewhere between 1 and 3 points this week. In a week where there are three teams that are double digit underdogs, including the two biggest point spreads of the season, it’s remarkable to think that there are nine games that are expected to be this close. Six of those teams are favored at home, while the others (which we spoke about with the number ’2.5′) are favored on the road.
9 – The number of times that teams have been favored by 20 or more points over the course of the last 15 seasons. Three of those nine times came with the New England Patriots in 2007, the ones that were 18-0 before losing to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. The Jacksonville Jaguars are dogs by 19.5 this week, and odds have it, the number is going to end up reaching that coveted 20. The Seattle Seahawks are the team laying the lumber, and knowing that they have one of the best and most explosive teams in the league, especially on the defensive side of the ball, we probably shouldn’t be all that surprised.
17 – The number of days that the Philadelphia Eagles will have had between their first game of the year against the Washington Redskins and their third game of the year against the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s odd to think that there is a team out there that is playing on not just one, but two consecutive short weeks, and the fact that it is Philadelphia could be all the more damning for the hosts. The boys from the City of Brotherly Love are trying to run offense as fast as they can, but they are clearly slowing down at the ends of games, likely from just being as tired as could be. The Chiefs and Philly’s former Head Coach Andy Reid could be in for a field day in this one.
19.5 – The number representing the spread in the game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. It’s the biggest spread of the week and the biggest of the season so far, though we know that this Jacksonville team is going to have some big numbers going against it at times during this season. It all makes sense for Seattle, too. It is at home in front of the most raucous crowd in the league, and it is coming off of a huge win against the 49ers. The Jags are traveling to the West Coast for the second straight week. The last time these two teams met, Jacksonville was waxed 41-0.
39 – The number featuring the lowest ‘total’ of the week in the game between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. Both of these teams have played better defense than most probably expected, both have a close loss against the New England Patriots, and both have a come from behind victory to their credit. QB Geno Smith is probably the significantly lesser quarterback between he and QB EJ Manuel, but Smith has the home field advantage on his side in this one. Still, the oddsmakers are expecting a lower scoring game when push comes to shove.
50.5 – The number featuring the highest ‘total’ of the week in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. This could be an interesting one, though, knowing that the Eagles have played a pair of ‘over’ games this year, while the Chiefs have played a pair of ‘under’ games. The lowest scoring Philly game reached 63 points. The highest scoring Kansas City game reached just 33 points. It’s a tough one to handicap for sure, but the Thursday Night Football games tend to be lower scoring games as well.
78 – The number of years that it has been since the Detroit Lions won a game on the road against the Redskins. Of course, we’re not talking about the Washington Redskins at this point. We’re talking about the Boston Redskins. Detroit has only won 12 games against the Skins in its history, and most of those games came back in the 1930s. The Lions have won two in a row against Washington, though both of those games came at Ford Field. To win this one on Sunday would be a heck of an accomplishment, especially for a team that was one of the biggest disappointments in the league in 2012.
165 – The number of passes that QB Andrew Luck went without throwing an interception for the Indianapolis Colts before last week. It was a heck of a run for Luck, but he isn’t getting a lot of help right now from the rest of his teammates. His receivers are excellent, but his offensive line is a wreck, and his rushing game is one of the worst in the NFL, especially now that RB Ahmad Bradshaw is really the only suitable back in the backfield with RB Vick Ballard on IR.
205 – The number of yards that the Baltimore Ravens have given up thus far this year to the top tight ends on the two teams that they have played. You probably haven’t heard all that much about TE Jordan Cameron of the Cleveland Browns or TE Julius Wilson of the Denver Broncos, but both had great games against the Ravens already on the season. What’s the problem for a team that has always been so strong on defense? The guys that would be defending tight ends, LB Ray Lewis and S Ed Reed are both gone, Lewis via retirement and Reed via free agency to the Houston Texans.
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