NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 4
When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 4. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!
0 – The number of times that the Kansas City Chiefs have turned the ball over this year. Through three games, they are outdoing teams in the turnover department 9-0, and this is why they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS to show for their work. The crazier stat? QB Alex Smith has 24 TDs against five picks in his last 17 games as a starter, and he is 13-3-1 in those games. There’s no doubt that this is a much different KC team than last year, and it already has more wins than it did last season as a result.
0 – The number of games this year that teams have lost when playing the week after a Thursday Night Football game. Both the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens killed their foes the next week after playing on TNF in Week 1, while the Week 2 foes from TNF, the New England Patriots and the New York Jets both posted victories and covers in Week 3. That bodes well this week for the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, as they take on the Denver Broncos and the New York Giants respectively, and they are both going to be rooting for the other team quite hard, knowing that they are both playing other foes from their own divisions.
1 – The number of games this year that teams have won when playing the week after a Monday Night Football game when not playing against another team that played on Monday Night Football the same week. This is sort of the parallel stat to the one right above it. The Washington Redskins and Houston Texans both played in Monday nighters in Week 1, only to turn around and not cover in Week 2, while the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers played on Monday Night Football in Week 2. The Bengals had to stage a huge comeback against the Green Bay Packers to get a ‘W’ last week, while the Steelers were a disaster once again going against the Chicago Bears. It could be bad news for the Oakland Raiders and the Denver Broncos, who have to take on the Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles respectively this week.
1 – The number of ATS losses that the AFC West has suffered this year. For all of this talk that the NFC was the superior conference, thus far this season in cross-conference games, the AFC has been killing it. The only ATS loss was when the Kansas City Chiefs only beat the Dallas Cowboys by one when they were favored by three. Aside from that, the division as a whole is 8-0-3 ATS, and two of those pushes came last week when the Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos landed right on the number.
1 – The number of teams in NFL history that have ever won a game when allowing 30 or more consecutive points to an opponent. And yes, you guessed it. That one time was last week when the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Green Bay Packers 34-30. Cincy led 14-0 before giving up the 30 points, and from there, the team scored three straight touchdowns in the second half to take the game 34-30. It was clearly one of the biggest wins that Head Coach Marvin Lewis has had in his career, and now he can say that he is in the record books as the only coach to ever lead a team to a win after allowing the opposition to score 30 or more points in a row consecutively.
2.98 – The number of yards per carry that RB Adrian Peterson is averaging since the very first carry of the season. Hopes were high for All Day to have a tremendous season when he ripped off his first run for 78 yards against the Detroit Lions. Since then though, teams have really bottled him up, and he hasn’t even managed to get to three yards per carry. Not surprisingly, the Minnesota Vikings haven’t won a game this year, and they aren’t going to do much in the way of winning if Peterson isn’t ripping off at least four or five yards a tote with regularity.
4 – The number of days of rest that the Philadelphia Eagles have on the Denver Broncos this week. The Eagles played last Thursday night against the Kansas City Chiefs, and they now have 10 days to prepare for this game against the Broncos on the road. The Broncos meanwhile, played on Monday Night Football last week against the Oakland Raiders, and they only have six days to prep for this one. Denver is definitely the better of these two teams, but this spot is going to be the juiciest that you will see in terms of scheduling in the NFL.
8 – The number of consecutive games with 300+ passing yards for QB Drew Brees. It’s amazing when you think about it, that Brees doesn’t have at least 300 yards every single time out there, as the New Orleans Saints just can’t run the football, and they have to wing it all over the field if they are going to win games. What makes this one notable though, is the fact that the NFL record for the most consecutive games with 300+ yards is nine, and Brees can tie that this week on Monday Night Football when his Saints march on against the Miami Dolphins in the only battle of 3-0 teams in Week 4.
9 – The number of players that have recorded at least one sack this year for the New York Jets. Head Coach Rex Ryan has his front seven moving all over the place, and any number of players are going to come on the blitz on any given play. It’s just a lot of fun to watch, and it has to be fun to play as well. The team had eight sacks last week against QB EJ Manuel and the Buffalo Bills, and you can bet that pressure is going to be ratcheted up against the Tennessee Titans and their relatively weak offensive tackles this week in Nashville once again.
11.5 – The number representing the biggest favorite of the weekend in the NFL. The team getting all those points are the Philadelphia Eagles, and they are having to travel all the way to the Rockies to take on the Denver Broncos. There’s a lot to talk about when it comes to this game, and we are going to dissect it all, but it’s easy to see why Denver is the favored side in this one. The Broncos have trashed all of their foes by at least 17 points this year, and since taking a 33-7 lead over the Washington Redskins in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 79-46.
12 – The number of touchdown passes that QB Peyton Manning has had thus far on the season. This man is a fantasy football dream, as he and all of his receivers are all putting up tremendous years early on. The 12 touchdowns for the Denver Broncos standout are a record through three games of a season, and it puts Manning on a clip for 64 touchdowns, 14 more than the record held by QB Tom Brady in the magical 16-0 year for the New England Patriots a few years back.
19 – The number of years that it has been since the Kansas City Chiefs have covered a game against the New York Giants. These two are going to meet once again this coming week, and the Chiefs definitely have a chance to not only assert themselves as one of the best teams in the top-heavy AFC, but also to really bury the G-Men, who would never be able to recover from an 0-4 start to the season. New York is 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU in the seven games in this series since the last time the Chiefs covered against it, and the last four games dating back to 1998 have all been double digit victories for the boys in blue.
38.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend in the NFL. The game pits the New York Jets against the Tennessee Titans, and it makes a heck of a lot of sense for this to be the lowest scoring game of the week. Both of these quarterbacks stink, and both RB Chris Johnson and the stable of Jets running backs are going to end up running the ball a ton. Last year, there were only 24 points when these two teams met up, and ‘under’ has generally been the word for Jets games thus far on the season. This could be the lowest ‘total’ of the year to date if it dips much more, but it also is nowhere near as low as some of the games that we will see once Mother Nature starts to play a role in these games in the Winter.
58 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend in the NFL. The game pits the Philadelphia Eagles against the Denver Broncos, and we think that this has the potential to be the highest over/under in a game in NFL history when it’s all said and done with. Could this one get into the low 60s? It’s very plausible to think so, especially since these two teams are combining to average over 900 yards of offense per game. The Broncos have scored at least 37 in each of their games this year, but they have also allowed at least 20 in each of their games as well.
453 – The number of yards that the New York Jets and the Tennessee Titans had combined in last year’s game when these two faced off against one another if you take out one play in the game. RB Chris Johnson scampered for 94 yards and a touchdown in a brutal 14-10 game that featured a whole heck of a lot more defense than anything else, and the teams only combined for 453 yards and 17 points if you take out that one play. Heck, QB Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos are averaging more yards per game by themselves and more points per game per half all by themselves, too!
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