NFL Betting By the Numbers: Week 7

When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the NFL betting lines for Week 7. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember for the week!

-8 – The number representing the turnover margin for the Houston Texans over the course of the last two weeks. The team has been a disaster since that point, getting romped by both the San Francisco 49ers and the St. Louis Rams, and in the end, what has transpired is that the team has turned to its third straight quarterback. QB Case Keenum is going to get his first career start on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the hope is there that Keenum becomes the first Texans quarterback to not partake in this whole pick six fiasco. Houston has already shattered the NFL record for the most games in a row with an INT returned for a touchdown, a record that currently sits at five games and counting.

0 – The number of times that teams have won games this year the week after playing the Seattle Seahawks. That’s bad news for the Tennessee Titans this week, who are going to be underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. Ironically, that San Fran team was probably the weirdest case of a team losing a game the week after playing against Seattle. The Niners came out and were beaten up by QB Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts as double digit favorites in a game that probably never should have been lost.

6 – The number of games that the Arizona Cardinals have won against the Seattle Seahawks at home over the course of the last seven years. Yep, you’re reading that right. Arizona has won six of the last seven games against the Seahawks at home, and though the total margin of victory in those games don’t even come close to matching the total margin of victory in the 58-0 whipping that the Seahawks issued that Cards last year at CenturyLink Field, they’re wins no less. There’s a reason that Arizona is one of the sharper bets on the Week 7 betting lines.

9 – The number of consecutive games that the New England Patriots have won in their second go around against teams from the AFC East. The team is 8-1 ATS in those nine games, and the first such example comes up this week against the New York Jets. Remember that it was only a few weeks ago that the Jets hung tough for the full 60 minutes against New England, losing 13-10 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots only have to cover a -3.5 number this week to keep that cover streak going, but this is a tough task to go on the road and beat a New York side that knows it is playing its biggest game of the season.

10.5 – The number representing the biggest point spread of the weekend. There are some games that are close to this, but the Green Bay Packers are the only double digit favorites of the weekend. The Cleveland Browns are in some trouble in this one for a few reasons. The Pack are hungry and are playing some tremendous ball at the moment, including winning a game on the road last week against another AFC North team, the Baltimore Ravens, but what might be worse for the Browns is that their fan base has put the job of QB Brandon Weeden up on Craigslist. Talk about demoralizing!

19 – The number of seasons since a team lost its first six games by double digits… Well, that is until 2013 when the Jacksonville Jaguars pulled off the feat. Though Jacksonville is applauded for covering its first game of the season last week against the Denver Broncos, covering a 26.5-point spread is like celebrating as an FCS team when you only lose by three TDs on the road against one of the Top 10 teams in the FBS. Matters are expected to get better this week, as the Jags have the San Diego Chargers coming to town in a game that the oddsmakers think they are “only” going to lose by 7.5 points. In all seriousness though, this might be the best shot to win a game for Jacksonville in quite some time, as the Bolts are coming to the East Coast and playing a 10:00 a.m. local time game just six days after playing a tough one on Monday Night Football.

25.5 – The number of points per game that the Chicago Bears gave up against teams with prototypical mobile quarterbacks last season. Of course, we’re talking about QB Cam Newton, QB Colin Kaepernick, and the likes, and QB Robert Griffin III of this week’s foe, the Washington Redskins should be fitting the mold. There’s a question as to whether he really does or not, knowing that RG3 has been limited tremendously in what he has been able to do thanks to his offseason ACL surgery, but if the bye week was good enough to get him into the thick of the fight again and back in the RG3 form we are used to seeing, he could give fits to a Chicago defense that is going to have to get used to using LB Jon Bostic at middle linebacker now that LB Brian Urlacher has retired and LB DJ Williams has a torn pectoral muscle and is out for the season.

29 – The number of years since the San Francisco 49ers covered a game against the Tennessee Titans. Of course, we’re having to go back a few team names and a city to get to that point, as the Niners last covered this franchise when it was known as the Houston Oilers. That could all change on Sunday when San Francisco has to travel across the country to get to Tennessee for a heck of a showdown against the Titans, who have been playing significantly more competitive ball this year than they had been in the last several years.

30 – The number of carries that the San Diego Chargers are going to hope to get to this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It seems to be cliché that you have to run the ball to win in this league, but the Bolts have gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over the course of the last two seasons when they ran the ball 30 times. Jacksonville has given up at least 27 carries in all of its games this season, and not surprisingly, it has allowed at least 30 carries in four of those six games. There’s a good chance the San Diego is going to get there with RB Ryan Mathews and the gang, especially if Mathews can run the same way that he did last week off the weak side against the Indianapolis Colts.

31 – The number of sacks that the Kansas City Chiefs have amassed this season. That’s not all that notable of a number, though it is impressive all by itself thanks to the play of DE Justin Houston and DE Tamba Hali, both of which are on pace for over 15 sacks this year. What makes this stat impressive is that KC had just 27 sacks all of last season, and we are only six games in now. Having that massive home field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium helps, but you know what else is going to help on Sunday? The Houston Texans are going to be using QB Case Keenum in his first NFL game. Good luck with that one, kid.

39.5 – The number representing the lowest ‘total’ of the weekend. The number to beat is in the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Tennessee Titans. This one makes a lot of sense. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick got absolutely nothing going last week against the Seattle Seahawks, and this San Fran defense is every bit as lethal as the one in Seattle. The 49ers have forced eight turnovers in their last two games, and if they can do that again on Sunday and turn over the Titans three or four times, it’s going to be tough to see this team get out of the single digits in scoring, making this a tough ‘total’ to try to catch.

43 – The number of years since the Detroit Lions beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Motown. These two don’t play each other all that often, but the traffic has certainly been one way in favor of Cincinnati. This is a tough draw this week for sure for Detroit, a team that has already managed to break one ridiculously long hex this season when it was able to go on the road and beat the Washington Redskins for the first time in DC.

50 – The number representing the percentage of time that opponents are converting on third downs against the Atlanta Falcons. If you thought that the offense had problems for Atlanta, you probably didn’t look at how badly this defense has been. Part of the offense’s problem is that the men in black and red can’t get off the field on third downs. This is easily the worst mark in the league, and it isn’t quite frankly all that close either. Now add in the fact that WR Julio Jones is out for the year and RB Steven Jackson and WR Roddy White are both out in this game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as well, and it’s a wonder if this is going to be the second game at home that the Falcons lose after being favored by more than a touchdown.

56 – The number representing the highest ‘total’ of the weekend. It shouldn’t be surprising that the game is involving the Denver Broncos, and it comes against the Indianapolis Colts. QB Peyton Manning is going to be back in his old stomping grounds, and he is going to be playing a rare indoor game. For the first time though, he’s going to have Lucas Oil Field rooting against him (though we have a hard time believing that anyone is doing anything but giving Manning a standing ovation during a pre-game ceremony to honor the best player in Indianapolis football history and arguably in the history of the Colts franchise). Indy’s offense isn’t slouching either with QB Andrew Luck at the helm, and this is going to be a game that really could go back and forth for quite a long time. If you thought that game between Denver and the Dallas Cowboys was high scoring, you might not have seen anything yet.

425 – The minimum number of yards that the Philadelphia Eagles have had in a game this season. That makes them the first team in NFL history to have at least 400 total yards in each of its first six games. What’s amazing is that it doesn’t seem to matter whether QB Michael Vick or QB Nick Foles is quarterbacking this offense. Foles is the man this week with Vick sidelined with his hamstring problem, but we don’t know what Head Coach Chip Kelly is going to do after Vick is back. We’ll worry about that in future weeks, though. With four linemen that were figured to be a big part of the rotation in the 4-3 for DC Monte Kiffin out of the fold, including DE Demarcus Ware, it’s tough to believe that the Eagles won’t get to at least 400 yards once again on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys.

Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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