NFL Betting Picks: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

chiefs steelers nfl pickThe NFL’s leading passer, Ben Roethlisberger (4,415 yards, 29 TDs), and second-leading rusher, Le’Veon Bell (1,278 yards, 7 TDs), will be on display when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Winners of three of their last four, Pittsburgh (9-5) will look to continue their recent success this week. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and will air on CBS.

In last week’s game, Pittsburgh got a win over Falcons 27-20. William Gay led the Pittsburgh defense in the win, recording eight tackles and one interception. Kansas City was able to pick up the win last week, defeating Oakland 31-13. Alex Smith had a huge game passing the ball for the Chiefs, connecting on 18 of 30 pass attempts for 297 yards and two TDs.

Pittsburgh is a three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 46 points. The Steelers enter the game with records of 9-5 Straight Up (SU) and 7-7 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Pittsburgh is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. Judging from past Chiefs games this season, expect to see a heavy dose of the Steelers run game. The Chiefs currently rank 28th in the NFL with 132.6 rushing yards allowed per game. In the second quarter, Pittsburgh is tough as nails, putting up a league-leading 16.8 points during the second frame of home games. Based on an average time of possession of 33:10 per game that ranks second in the league, look for Pittsburgh to control the pigskin.

Over on the other sideline, the Chiefs have 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS records this season. The Chiefs went 2-3 both SU and ATS over the last five games. Running the ball has resulted in very positive outcomes for the Chiefs, who average the fifth-best yards per carry in the league with 4.6. Over the last five games, the Chiefs turned it up on the defensive side of the football, only allowing an average of 188.2 passing yards per game. The Chiefs make it hard on their opponents down the stretch, averaging 7.3 points in the final quarter. Kansas City’s return game could play a key role in this week’s match up. They average 135.2 return yards per game, the most in the NFL.

Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC, O/U – Over

Notes

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City’s last 10 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games.

Kansas City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.

Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games on the road.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games at home.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing Kansas City.

Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City.

Kansas City is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City.

Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City.

Kansas City is 6-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.

Kansas City is 5-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.

This season, Kansas City is 3-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and only 2-4 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.

This season, Pittsburgh is only 1-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.

The Pittsburgh pass defense is ranked 25th in the NFL, while the Kansas City offensive passing attack is ranked 30th.

The Pittsburgh rushing attack is ranked 10th in the league, while the Kansas City run defense is only ranked 28th. The Chiefs’ rushing game is ranked seventh, compared to the ninth-ranked run defense of the Steelers.

Kansas City has only allowed 19.3 points per contest on the road, which is ranked fifth in the league. Pittsburgh, however, has put up 35.0 points per game at home (ranked third overall).

Pittsburgh has given up 24.2 points per game this year, which is ranked only 21st in the league. Kansas City has scored 23.0 points per game this year and is ranked 14th overall.

Aaron Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.