January 30, 2013

NFL Betting Tips: Super Bowl 47 By the Numbers

When you bet on the NFL, you should know all about the numbers. Numbers for stats, numbers for trends, numbers for betting lines, numbers for ‘totals’ – You should know it all. Here at Bang the Book, we are set to talk about the football betting lines for Super Bowl 47. Here are the most important numbers that you need to remember before betting the big game!

0: The number of games that the 49ers and the Ravens lost from an ATS standpoint here in the playoffs. It’s not like these two teams have been squeaking by either. San Francisco covered its two games by a combined 14.5 points. Baltimore has been even better, covering by 23 against New England, 12.5 over Denver, and 7.5 over Indianapolis. There might not be a team in the history of the league that has had such an impressive set of NFL betting results en route to a Super Bowl.

0: The number of interceptions that QB Joe Flacco has thrown here in the playoffs. For a quarterback that hasn’t been considered as one of the “elite” quarterbacks in the league, Flacco surely knocked off some great quarterbacks along the way in the AFC playoffs. It’s not just any man that can beat QB Tom Brady and QB Peyton Manning, especially with both games coming on the road. And, to be able to do all of that with eight touchdowns and no picks in three playoff games against teams that all won double digits worth of games this year? If that’s not “elite,” we don’t know what is.

0: The number of sacks that DE Aldon Smith has had over the course of his last five games. That’s bad news for a man that had 19.5 sacks in the regular season and threatened the single season sack record for a good chunk of the campaign. Smith is one of these men that is going to have to get off of the mat and get into the face of the quarterback to get the job done if the Niners are going to win this game.

3: The number of defensive and special teams touchdowns that the 49ers and the Ravens have allowed here in the postseason. The Niners allowed a pick six right at the outset of the game against the Green Bay Packers, while the Ravens allowed KR Trindon Holliday to record the longest punt return for a touchdown and the longest kick return for a touchdown in NFL postseason history in the game at the Denver Broncos.

3.5: The number of points that the 49ers are favored by in this game. The line movement has been interesting in this one. San Fran was a 4.5-point favorite early on, briefly went up as high as -5.5, but has done nothing but come down since that point. Some sportsbooks have the Niners favored by just a field goal. It has been a disastrous year for the bookmakers this season, and if San Fran wins this game by three or four points, it could be disastrous.

5: The number of times that the 49ers have been to the Super Bowl in their franchise’s history. The number ’0′ reigns supreme here as well, as this is the number of games that San Fran has lost with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. This is one of the most proud franchises in the history of the NFL, and a win in this game would tie it for the most Super Bowl titles in NFL history.

6: The number of consecutive games that have gone ‘over’ the ‘total’ that the 49ers have played. In those games, the team has averaged 30.1 points per game. Of course, QB Colin Kaepernick is the man that has done the quarterbacking in those encounters, and he has clearly essentially revolutionized the way that San Francisco has played offense in the second half of the season.

10: The number of points that the lowest scoring Super Bowl team has put on the board since these Ravens held the New York Giants to just seven points in Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa Bay. That was the only Super Bowl appearance that Baltimore had ever made, and it was one of the best defensive showings that any team had in the history of the battle for the Lombardi Trophy.

19: The total number of points that the 49ers have scored against the Ravens over the course of their last three meetings. The Niners have scored just one touchdown in those three games, and that obviously isn’t going to cut it when push comes to shove in this one. Of course, the Ravens only have 25 points scored in the last two games in this series too, and that probably won’t do the job either.

31: The number of points that the highest scoring Super Bowl team has put on the board since the New England Patriots scored 32 against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXVIII in Houston. Both the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers pulled off scoring 31 points, but no one else really has threatened going much beyond that.

44: The number of tackles that LB Ray Lewis has had over the course of his three games here in the playoffs. That’s an absolutely remarkable number for a man that is still recovering from a triceps injury, and it’s absolutely remarkable for a man that is now coming up on 38 years old. Yes, Ray Ray is still one of the best linebackers in football, even as he enters the final game of his career, and he is surely going to be a factor in this, his second Super Bowl appearance.

47: The number that the ‘total’ has set at here in the Super Bowl. Of course, the number started off right after the AFC Championship Game ended at 49.5 and has steadily dropped since that point. Perhaps the bookmakers should have seen this one coming. Even the highest of Super Bowl ‘totals’ have all seemed to be struggling to reach the number or not getting there of late. Then again, this has been the highest scoring playoffs in the history of the NFL, so anything could happen.

64.5: The number of points per game that the 49ers have accounted for and allowed in their four games against playoff teams since QB Colin Kaepernick took over as the team’s signal caller. Three of the four games ended in wins, but none of the four ultimately were good defensive performances. That’s part of the reason why this ‘total’ is so high for the biggest game of the year.

69.1: The number representing the percentage of passes that the 49ers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete here in their first two playoff games. That’s an eye-popping number for a secondary that is routinely one of the best in the league. However, against two very good quarterbacks, QB Matt Ryan and QB Aaron Rodgers, the Niners have looked suspect at best at the back, and that could turn out to be a problem in the Super Bowl.

170: The number of yards that the 49ers amassed against Baltimore when these two teams met last year on Thanksgiving night. Of course, that San Fran team wasn’t as polished as this San Fran team, and QB Alex Smith was calling the shots instead of QB Colin Kaepernick. There’s almost no way that the 49ers end up stuck with just 170 total yards of offense once again in this one, but if they did, they have no chance whatsoever to win the game.

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Andrew Ryan

Andrew Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.

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