NFL Betting Trends- 2012 Total Line Results
Understanding past results can often times provide clues to predicting future outcomes, so that is why betting trends are a vital handicapping tool especially when it comes to the NFL. The following is a complete breakdown of last season’s results in terms of the top performances for both the OVER and the UNDER on the total line.
Overall 2012 NFL Total Line Trends
Looking back at the results for every NFL regular season game, the Oddsmakers did an incredible job at keeping the total line razor thin. Betting the UNDER provided an ever-so slight advantage with 50.6 percent of the games staying under the closing total line. The total did go OVER in 69.6 percent of the games that went into overtime last season.
Top Teams on the OVER Line
The best team to bet on in terms of the OVER last season was the New England Patriots. This should come as little surprise considering that they led the league in scoring with an average of 34.8 points a game. Even though the Patriots’ defense was ranked ninth in the NFL in points allowed it was enough to help 11 of their 16 games go OVER the total.
There were two teams at 10-5-1 on the total line; the Detroit Lions and the Denver Broncos. This also make sense when you take a look at the scoring trends for both teams. The Lions averaged 23.2 points a game, which was just about average for the league but they were ranked 27th in points allowed; giving-up an average of 27.3 a game.
With Peyton Manning at the helm, the Broncos’ big-play offense routinely put up big numbers on the scoreboard with an average of 30.1 points a game. This was the second-highest scoring average in the NFL. Defensively, Denver finished the regular season ranked fourth in points allowed, but gave-up just enough to take 63 percent of its games over the total line.
A few other teams that provided a healthy return on the OVER play were New Orleans and San Diego with 10 of 16 games going over the total. There eight additional teams that had nine of their 16 games go over the total line as well.
Top Teams on the UNDER Line
There were three teams at the top of this category with 68.8 percent or 11 of their 16 of their games stay UNDER the total. Of the three, the Miami Dolphins paint the clearest picture with an offense that was ranked 27th in scoring with an average of 18 points a game to complement a defense that allowed an average of just 19.8 points a game.
The Atlanta Falcons were another team that had a stingy defense; giving-up an average of 18.7 points a game which was the fifth-lowest total in the NFL. Their offense does not necessarily fit the bill as the seventh-highest scoring unit in the league with 26.2 points a game, but the net effect was obviously enough to keep game totals lower than the Oddsmakers had projected.
The final team at the top of this list was the New York Giants. They went against the grain a bit as well with an offense that racked-up an average of 26.8 points a game to go along with a defense that allowed 21.5 points to its opponents. The perception of this team as a big-play, offensive powerhouse may have helped to drive-up the total line on occasion, leading to more games staying under than expected.
Another team that was a solid play on the UNDER was the Kansas City Chiefs with a 6-9-1 record on the total line. This result makes all the sense in the world considering the Chiefs were ranked dead-last in the NFL in scoring (13.2 points). The fact they were ranked 25th in points allowed (26.6 points) was part of the reason that so many games actually ended-up going over the total line.
There were four teams (Indianapolis, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Oakland) that ended the season 6-10 on the total line and there were six more with a final record of 7-9.
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.
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