NFL Betting Trends- Manning and Tebow Prop Bets
First we had the Peyton Manning Derby, which was won by the Denver Broncos, which in-turn set-up the Tim Tebow Sweepstakes. This is like comparing the Kentucky Derby to a grade II stakes race when it comes to quarterbacking skills, but as far as popularity with the fans and the betting public, the Tebow Stakes was a much shorter race, but right up there in drama and excitement.
While Jacksonville appeared to be the front-runner to land Tebow, teams such as Miami, Green Bay, and even New England remained contenders in this race. In the end, Rex Ryan decided to enhance his team’s carnival atmosphere by adding Tebow to the New York Jets’ circus of stars. Bovada has wasted little time in posting some prop bets for both Tebow and Manning’s performance in the 2012 regular season.
The money line is -120 for either yes or no as to whether Tebow will be the starting quarterback for a new team on opening day of the 2012 season. If the Jaguars would have been able to bring Florida’s favorite son back home, all the value lied in the ‘yes’ on this one. The Jets have already stated he will get a chance to compete with Mark Sanchez for the starting job. In all likelyhood, Tebow be used in some sort of Wildcat package for a select number of plays, shifting all the value to no.
When it comes to prop bets for Manning, there are a myriad of things you can wager on. At the top of the list is total passing yards for the 2012 regular season. The total is 4000 and the money line is -115 for both the ‘over’ and the ‘under’. The Broncos did not sign Manning to hand the ball off to Willis McGahee or whomever may be in the Denver backfield next season 30 times a game, so you know this offense is going to look to throw the ball. Manning has passed for 4000 yards or more in 11 of his 13 active seasons in the NFL and threw for over 3700 yards in the other two seasons. Go heavy on the ‘over’ for this one.
The next prop is an ‘over/under’ on regular season touchdown passes set at 28.5 with the money line for either side set at -115. Looking at his 13 years in the league, he has eclipsed this mark just seven times and given that the Broncos’ receiving corps for opening day is a long way from being finalized, you might want to lean towards the ‘under’ on this one.
If you believe that Manning’s passing ability will be back to 100 percent by opening day, you might want to jump on the ‘over’ that he will complete 65 percent of his throws in the 2012 regular season. The money line for this prop is also -115 for either side. Just for the record, Manning’s career completion percentage is 64.9. He has eclipsed this mark in each of his last nine active seasons in the NFL.
If you believe that Manning’s neck injury is going to have some lingering effects on his accuracy, then you might want to jump on the ‘over’ for interceptions in the 2012 regular season with the line set at 16.5. Once again the money lines are -115 for either side. Manning has thrown less than 16.5 interceptions in nine of his 13 seasons as a starter. He did throw 17 picks in the 2010 season, but prior to that you have to go all the way back to the 2002 regular season, when he threw 19 INT’s.
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