NFL Betting Trends- Super Bowl XLVI Edition
All season long we have been taking a close look at some of the most relevant betting trends in the NFL, but with just one more game on the slate (not counting this Sunday’s Pro Bowl) it is time to focus all our energy on this season’s Super Bowl matchup between the New York Giants and New England Patriots.
Wagering on the Super Bowl is a billion-dollar industry in of itself, but whether you are just buying a couple of blocks in the local office pool or planning a trip to Las Vegas for the big game, you need to develop a betting strategy that fits your style as well as enhances your opportunity to make one final profit from this year’s football season.
If you want to bet the game itself, the easiest way is to play the sides and/or total line. Right now, most sportsbooks are giving the Giants three points with the total set anywhere from 55.5 to 54.5 points. Just as a reference point, New York closed as a 12.5-point underdog the last time these two met in the Super Bowl with the total set at 54.5 points.
A bold bet given the current spread would be a ‘push’ with New England turning the tables and beating the Giants by three points this time around. This scenario actually bears some merit given that both teams that just sweated-out three-point games in last Sunday’s conference championships. This line is liable to move a half point either way as we get closer to game time.
A smart play on the total line would be on the ‘over’ as the fast track in the dome at Lucas Oil Stadium removes any kind of weather element that might slow either of these teams’ potent offense down. This game has a very good chance to turn into the Eli Manning verse Tom Brady show as each quarterback ends-up taking turns moving their team up and down the field.
Looking at the season as a whole, you need to remember that New York was ranked eighth in the NFL in total yards per game and ninth in scoring, while coming in ranked 27th in total yards allowed and 25th in points allowed. New England’s numbers are even more dramatic with an offense that was ranked second in total yards and third in scoring to go along with a defense that was ranked 31st against the pass and in total yards allowed.
A whole other strategy is to simply wager on any of the hundreds of proposition bets that will be available for this game. Some have already been released, but be sure to check your preferred sportsbook daily for the full complement of available bets.
Prop bets can be broken down into three basic categories; the game itself, individual player performances, and what I like to call the ‘silly bets’. Bets on the game itself will revolve around things such as which team scores first, what kind of score it will be, the total points scored by quarter, etc. There are also prop bets available for just about every statistical measure such as total rushing yards, passing yards, first downs, etc. Most of these are presented in an ‘over’ and ‘under’ format.
Individual performances can be a group prop bet, such as which player scores first or who will be the game’s MVP? Other prop bets pit one player’s performance against another’s such as which quarterback will throw for more yards or which receiver catches more balls.
The silly bets start with calling the coin toss. The odds on this bet are always 50/50 no matter how many times heads came up in past Super Bowls. These type of prop bets are only limited by a sportsbook’s creativity and imagination. Last year I found one that had an ‘over/under’ for how many seconds the person singing our National Anthem held the high note at the end of the song.
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