NFL MVP Odds Update (through Week 10)
Here at Bang the Book, we are beginning our update for the MVP odds on a regular basis. Here is our first look through 10 weeks of play at some of the favorites as well as the odds to win the 2011 MVP that can be found below…
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: The all-time best quarterback rating in the history of the NFL is 112.7, held by the great San Francisco 49ers QB Steve Young. Rodgers is at 130.7. Think that he is dominating just a bit in this category this year? Through nine games, Rodgers has 28 touchdown passes (most in the league), the best quarterback rating (by 27+ points, mind you), and is fourth in passing yards (2,869), and he’ll surpass QB Ben Roethlisberger this week for third place in that category. These are just insane numbers that he is putting on the board on a regular basis, and it feels like each and every week, we see the same type of stat line: 24/30 for 320 yards with three scores and no picks. It’s just standard at this point. This is clearly the league MVP if he stays healthy.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans: All of a sudden with QB Matt Schaub being out for the season, Foster looks like the best option at running back to claim glory as the league’s MVP. Remember that his stats are lagging a bit behind because of the games that he missed in the first few games of the year, but that being said, he still has the fourth most touchdowns in football (8), and he is still eighth in rushing (740 yards). If you were to prorate the numbers for Foster over the course of a full season, he would have 2.5 more games worth of work, leaving him with 987 rushing yards, 593 receiving yards, and 11 total TDs. Or, put him on a pace at that point for 1,579 rushing yards, 949 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns. Those look like MVP numbers to us, especially when you consider the fact that Foster has another Top 10 back in the league in his backfield in RB Ben Tate.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: We remain on the Brees bandwagon after watching him pull his team out of the Georgia Dome with a huge overtime victory against the Atlanta Falcons. There really should be no turning back now in the division, especially with that last game against Atlanta coming at home at the Superdome, and that being said, the worst that this team should do is the No. 3 seed in the NFC. We’re still talking about a man who is averaging 332.6 passing yards per game this year, numbers which are just absolutely astounding regardless of what day and age that we’re playing in. And, remember that Brees is doing this all with no real forces in the backfield behind him and did so without WR Marques Colston for a month.
Matt Forte, Chicago Bears: We aren’t so sure that there aren’t other quarterbacks that could be plugged into the Green Bay backfield that could still lead the Packers to victory. We know that there aren’t many running backs that could do what Forte has done for the Bears, though. Forte as 869 yards on the ground and 439 more as a receiver, and he is averaging touching the football a whopping 23.1 times per game. He’s a workhorse in every sense of the word, and he is a rare hybrid as a leading rusher and leading receiver for his club. There’s a reason that Forte wants a new contract and wants one now, though. He already has over 1,190 touches of the football in his four year career, and there is only so much punishment that a tailback can take.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady needs 297 passing yards this week to overtake Brees as the top passing quarterback in the league on the season to date. Considering the fact that he is averaging 336.9 yards per game and is on a pace to smash the single season record by throwing for 5,390 yards tells us that that shouldn’t be all that much of an issue. Brady is putting up numbers that are just like what he amassed in 2007, but he isn’t getting as much hype for it because A) he has had a few dud games in there and B) the rest of the team around him just isn’t all that great.
Odds to Win 2011 MVP (as of 11/17/11)
Aaron Rodgers 1 to 4.50
Adrian Peterson 75 to 1
Arian Foster 12 to 1
Ben Roethlisberger 20 to 1
Calvin Johnson 30 to 1
Drew Brees 8 to 1
Eli Manning 10 to 1
Frank Gore 8 to 1
Fred Jackson 30 to 1
Joe Flacco 30 to 1
LeSean McCoy 40 to 1
Matt Forte 12 to 1
Matthew Stafford 50 to 1
Michael Turner 60 to 1
Philip Rivers 30 to 1
Tom Brady 15 to 1
Tony Romo 50 to 1
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