Here at Bang the Book, we are beginning our update for the MVP odds on a regular basis. Here is our first look through 14 weeks of play at some of the favorites as well as the odds to win the 2011 MVP that can be found below…
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: At -2000, it is clear that Rodgers is going to win the MVP award as long as he reaches at least some of the milestones that he is expected to pass. Pretty much any of the three of the 5,000-yard season, the 50 TD barrier, the highest quarterback rating in the history of the NFL for a single season, or a 16-0 season would get the job done. Injury would probably be the only thing that kept him from the honors, knowing that he has 4,125 passing yards, 39 TDs, a 123.6 QB rating, and a 13-0 record. It’ll be hard for anyone else to buck the trends as long as he gets the job done.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: Brees is still leading the league in passing with 4,368 yards, and he is the one that is likely going to end up breaking all of the league passing records this year. He has fallen well behind the pace for the league lead in touchdown passes, and his team is still three games away from being the top team in the NFC. He might be the legitimate MVP, as we think that Green Bay is in a heck of a lot better shape without Rodgers than the Saints are without him, but there is no way that Brees stands a chance, barring some absolutely miraculous stats at the end of the year.
Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos: Yeah, we’re as disgusted by all of this as you probably are as well. Tebow’s numbers look like those of a man that shouldn’t even be in football, but it’s hard to measure heart, and that’s what the former Florida Gator has brought to the Broncos. Denver’s defense deserves the tip of the hat for as well as it has played over the course of the last several weeks, but Tebow, like him or lump him, just continues to win. He is only completing 48.5 percent of his passes, and he is averaging less than 150 passing yards per start, but he does only have two picks against 11 TDs, and he has added 517 yards and three TDs on the ground. Parlay all of that with the third longest winning streak in the game and the chance to not just make the playoffs, but host a playoff game with a team that was dead in the water a month ago, and you might have the makings of a guy that is worth a flyer at 100 to 1.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots: The problem that Brady really has is that he might not really be the MVP of his own offense. WR Wes Welker is the only man in football with more than 80 receptions coming into this week, and he has a whopping 100. He’s also tops in the league in receiving yards with 1,343. TE Rob Gronkowski broke the record for most TDs in a season by a tight end, and he has a chance to break the record for most TDs by any receiver when this season is said and done with. He also has 71 catches for 1,088 yards, making him eighth in the league in receiving, just behind TE Jimmy Graham of the Saints. That being said, this is going to be another year in which Brady challenges the 5,000 yard passing barrier, and this year, he should get there. He has to get the top seed in the AFC, he has to finish with the most passing yards in the league, and he has to hope that something bad happens to Rodgers in terms of an injury. Aside from that, Brady really doesn’t have much of a chance at the MVP award.
Odds to Win 2011 MVP (as of 12/17/11)
Aaron Rodgers 1 to 20
Ben Roethlisberger 25 to 1
Drew Brees 10 to 1
Tim Tebow 100 to 1
Tom Brady 12 to 1
Tony Romo 40 to 1
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.