NFL Betting Favorite: Broncos -2.5
The Buffalo Bills started 5-2, and they were a part of the AFC East discussion. Ryan Fitzpatrick got a big long-term extension and the team seemed to be turning the corner. Since that time, the Bills have lost seven straight games and they are back in the cellar of the division. The Broncos appeared destined for the bottom of the AFC West, but they rattled off six straight wins before losing to New England last week. Can Buffalo right the ship or will the Broncos move one step closer to a playoff berth?
Tim Tebow has been all the rage over the last few weeks. Tebow has made it a habit of bringing the Broncos from behind to win games that it appeared was out of reach. Tebow only has a completion percentage of 48.6%, but he has thrown 11 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions. Willis McGahee and Lance Ball have both been running the ball well lately for Denver. Tebow makes it tougher on defenses because there is always that second running option in the backfield at all times. The Broncos lead the NFL in rushing yards per game with 163 yards per contest.
Denver’s defense has made great strides forward over the course of the year. Von Miller has been a terrific addition to this defense. Miller has racked up 11.5 sacks and 51 tackles already in his rookie campaign. His versatility make him a real weapon for this team. Wesley Woodyard and D.J. Williams are the leading tacklers on this team from their linebacker spots. The Patriots torched this defense last week. Can they bounce back against the Bills?
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a pretty good season overall, but he has definitely come back down to earth from his amazing start to the year. Fitzpatrick is throwing far too many interceptions. He has thrown 22 touchdowns and 19 interceptions in 2011. The entire Bills offense has really taken a big step backward ever since Fred Jackson went down with a season-ending injury. Jackson had been the catalyst for the Buffalo offense. C.J. Spiller is averaging 5 yards per carry, and he is gaining confidence each week. The Bills are scoring 22.2 points per game this season.
Buffalo’s defense was one of the worst in the NFL last year, and they are near the bottom of the pack once again this season. The team ranks 26th in the league in total defense. The secondary is improved from a year ago, but the team still struggles mightily when it comes to stopping the run. This defense has allowed at least 23 points in each of the team’s last six games. They must find a way to slow down the Broncos running attack in this game.
Look for Denver to run the ball effectively in this one. The Bills have been losing the turnover battle every game of late, and that will probably be the case again in this one. I’ll take the Broncos to cover the small number.
Free NFL Pick: Denver -2.5
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