NFL Preseason Week 2 System Picks
Week 2 of the NFL preseason has seen several noticeable trends over the years, but bettors should use a bit of caution based on the opening week results. Week 2 has seen the majority of games go over the total in recent years, although the sportsbooks were quick to make some upwards adjustments in their totals after watching overs go 12-4 so far this preseason. Every single total on the Week 2 slate opened at least 38.
Over the past 10 seasons totals have gone 89-68-2 (56.7%) in Week 2, but the recent trends are even more pronounced, as totals are 47-31-1 over the past five seasons and 29-18-1 (61.7%) in Week 2 over the past three years.
Interestingly, it’s been the games that fall outside of the normal totals cluster of 35 to 39.5 over the past three years that have had the most success. Games with a total of 34.5 or less were a solid 5-3-1 (62.5%) against the total, while games with a total of 40 or over were a perfect 5-0. Games with a total between 35 and 39.5 were 19-15, which is still a solid 55.9%.
As of Monday afternoon, when the opening Week 2 numbers came out, there were more games with totals of 40 or above than were not, which is a big difference than in the past three years when there were just five games combined with an over/under posted so high.
Since you don’t want to be wagering on 75% of the games, a little additional digging is needed, which leads us to Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers, who were blanked at home by Arizona 17-0 in opening week. That result continued a trend that has McCarthy’s Packers now 2-6 ATS and 3-5 in totals in Week 1.
But Week 2 has been different, as Green Bay is 5-2 ATS and 7-0 in totals under McCarthy. St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher also has had a tendency to go over the total in Week 2, as he sports a 6-3 mark between his time with the Rams and the Titans. All three of Fisher’s under were by 4.5 points or less, so it isn’t a case of him necessarily holding back. The Rams and Packers over 40.5 on Saturday is worth a look.
Other Week 2 coaching trends show Cincinnati 7-3 ATS under Marvin Lewis; Houston is 5-2 ATS and 6-1 O/U under Gary Kubiak; New Orleans is 5-0-1 in totals under Sean Payton; and the New York Giants are 6-3 ATS under Tom Coughlin.
The prevailing side trend over the years has been to take the home underdogs in Week 2. Though just 2-2 over the past three years, Week 2 home underdogs are 6-3 over the past five years and 12-7-1 (63.2%) over the past 10 seasons.
The only team to fall into that category in Week 2 is Washington +1 against Pittsburgh on Monday, although that could change depending on any line moves.
The Eagles and Bills both opened at -3 and were quickly bet up to -3.5, while the Jets and Kansas City both went from -1.5 to -2. The line movement in the Chiefs game is the most surprising, as Kansas City is on an 0-10 run in Week 2, although Andy Reid was 6-4 ATS in Week 2 with the Eagles.
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