NFL Preseason Week 4 System Picks
The final week of the NFL preseason is now upon us and Week 4 has traditionally gone to the dogs. Underdogs have been the way to go in the final exhibition game, as underdogs are 85-68-7 (55.6%) in all games since 2003 and 42-33-5 (56%) over the past five seasons.
Underdogs of six or more points have gone 13-7 over the past 10 seasons and 5-3 against the spread over the past five years, although Oakland did lose last year as 6.5-point underdogs at Seattle. As of Tuesday afternoon, New Orleans+6 at Miami, Baltimore+7 at St. Louis, and Oakland+6.5 at Seattle all fit the bill. It may be tough to back the Raiders, however, as Seattle is 7-0 in its last seven Week 4 games, while the Raiders have dropped their past six Week 4 contests.
The Cardinals are another squad that has performed well in Week 4, covering their last five.
The best NFL bet in Week 4, historically, has been the home underdog, as these teams sport a 15-6 ATS record since 2003 and have gone 10-3 ATS over the past five seasons. There are no shortage of home underdogs this week, as the Jets+3 against Philadelphia, Buffalo+4.5 against Detroit, Atlanta+3 versus Jacksonville, Minnesota+4.5 against Tennessee, Chicago+2 against Cleveland, and Dallas+2 against Houston all fall into this category.
Trend players will look at the Buffalo game and note the Bills have dropped their last five Week 4 contests, while the Lions have covered their last five Week 4 games.
Week 4 will typically have the starters playing very little and as a result the oddsmakers have adjusted totals once again. After seeing the majority of totals over 40 the past two weeks, all of the over/unders are below 40 for the week. The Jets and Eagles have both seen their last five Week 4 games go over the total.
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