NFL Prop Picks – Wild Card Weekend
It’s playoff time, and that means that the number of games left to handicap on the NFL card is starting to dwindle. Today, we have some great NFL props for Wild Card Weekend covered so you can find an alternative way to beat the NFL betting lines in the postseason.
Jamaal Charles Rushing Yards Over 92.5 – The Colts have always been known as a relatively soft team up front, and they don’t have the best run stoppers in the world. There really is no choice for Kansas City to keep the ball on the ground, something which it really didn’t do all that well against this Indianapolis unit a few weeks ago when these clubs met at Arrowhead Stadium. Still, Charles had just 13 carries, and he turned those 13 carries into 106 yards, something which has to be a concern to Head Coach Chuck Pagano. The Colts allowed 125.1 yards per game this year on the ground. If you’re betting on Charles to stay under this number, you’re really hoping that Indianapolis can find some way to take him out of this game. However, a fresh Charles with a week off shouldn’t be under any troubling conditions, and we expect that he is going to get the ball at least 25 times in this one regardless of who is winning. That should easily yield at least 93 yards for one of the most efficient runners in the game.
Who Will Record More Sacks in the Kansas City/Indianapolis Game – This one just doesn’t make all that much sense to us. The Chiefs are the -150 favorites on the road, and they are the -150 favorites after logging just 11 sacks in their last seven games combined. DE Robert Mathis had 19.5 sacks this season by himself, and though he didn’t have a ton of help from the rest of his teammates, we think that even getting to just two sacks might be enough to at least split this prop, if not win it. DE Justin Houston is still up in the air, and we aren’t all that sure that he is going to give it a go for Kansas City, and DE Tamba Hali only has one game with at least one sack in the last two months. The wrong team is clearly favored, especially with this game being played at Lucas Oil Field, where the Indianapolis defense has a lot of help on its side.
Drew Brees Passing Yards Over 320.5 – Though we know that the weather conditions probably aren’t going to be all that great in the City of Brotherly Love, and we know that the weather conditions are going to be far from ideal in this game, there is no doubt in our minds Brees should throw for at least 350 yards against a bad Philly secondary, which is going to spend a lot of time on the field. When the props come out about how many times Brees is going to put the pill in the air, remember the last three playoff games this team has played. Brees has 63, 43, and 60 passing attempts in those games, and he has thrown for at least 400 yards in all of those games. There really is no reason to think that the Eagles are going to slow him or slow this New Orleans offense down, and especially if you’re a believer in Philly winning this game by a relatively comfortable margin, there should be no excuse for Brees to not put the pill in the air at least 50 times for at least 350 yards.
LeSean McCoy To Score a Touchdown (-175) – The shootout should be on for the Eagles and the Saints on Saturday, and though McCoy was more known for what he was able to do in terms of amassing yardage this year, there isn’t another back which is going to be stealing touchdowns from him. The New Orleans front seven was known for getting pounded down near the red zone against good power rushing teams, and McCoy can both bull it in from a yard out and score from 70 yards away. Shady did have 11 TDs this year in totality, and he can do it both as a receiver and as a rusher. If the Eagles score four times on Saturday, as many believe that they will, McCoy almost certainly has to have at least one of those TDs, if not a whole heck of a lot more than that.
Philip Rivers Passing Yards Over 240.5 – Alright, we might be stepping into a trap here, as this one just looks far too easy. Rivers threw for over 4,000 yards this season, and seeing him get to just 241, albeit against one of the better defenses in the league, really doesn’t seem all that difficult. We know that the Bengals had one of the best secondaries in all of football this year, and we also know that Rivers hasn’t had more than 252 yards in five straight games, including posting that 252 against Cincinnati five weeks ago. However, he had over 340 yards five times this year, and this might be another one of these games where he goes off for a big time yardage total in a game, even if it is just a matter of picking up garbage yards towards the end of a game that might not ultimately be all that close.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis To Have More Rushing Yards Than Giovani Bernard (+120) – This might not be the best prop in the world either, but we wonder whether Head Coach Marvin Lewis is going to trust his rookie to keep the ball on the ground in a playoff game more than his veteran, who has been here and done this time and time again. What the Law Firm doesn’t have on his side is the fact that he really hasn’t been a great back for the Bengals in the postseason these last two years, while Bernard gives that change of pace look. We know that Bernard is the better back and the more explosive back, but we also know that he is going to have his touches limited unless he starts to catch some fire. We’ll take our chances that Green-Ellis is given the ball more often and has at least a 50/50 chance of having the greater amount of rushing yards of the two Cincinnati backs.
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Over 270.5 – The time is here for Rodgers to really prove that he has what it takes to beat these 49ers. He has failed in three straight games, and though he and his offensive mates have put up what should have been enough points to win each of those games, he just hasn’t completely gotten the job done. The Niners are weaker in the secondary than you might think, and with a full complement of receivers back in his arsenal, Rodgers could have a field day. Remember, this is a man who routinely has been throwing for over 4,000 yards in seasons when he is healthy, and if that is going to be his average, he is going to throw for at least 271 more often than not in these big time games.
Randall Cobb To Have More Receiving Yards Than Jordy Nelson (+160) – This is just a huge number to be giving Cobb at this point. We know that the man from Kentucky isn’t the healthiest in the world right now, as he has only had one game back in the saddle after spending most of the season on IR. However, Cobb still has that explosive, big play ability, and we saw him get yards in chunks last week against the Chicago Bears, including scoring the touchdown that put Green Bay into the playoffs. Last week, though it was Nelson who had 161 yards and 16 targets versus just the two targets for Cobb, we know that Rodgers and Cobb have the better rapport. Nelson should draw some additional attention, and that could leave Cobb open for those big 30-40 yard chunks on a regular basis against a defense which really doesn’t give up the big play all that often.