NFL Super Bowl Futures Market Update
The dust had hardly settled on the New York Giants 21-17 victory over the New England Patriots in this season’s Super Bowl before Bovada released its ‘futures’ odds for all 32 NFL teams to win Super Bowl XLVII next February at the Superdome in New Orleans.
Since those odds were first released, the league has opened-up its offseason free agency period and held its annual college draft, so it is time for an update on the ‘futures’ market in the NFL.
Stock is Rising
The obvious big gainer since early February is the Denver Broncos, who were the proud winners of the Peyton Manning Derby that was held in early March. Even though Manning has not thrown a pass in an actual game since the end of the 2010 season, the future ‘Hall of Fame’ quarterback has single-handedly taken the Broncos from being a 50/1 longshot to a being the fourth-favorite at 12/1 to win it all. That is a lot of pressure to be placed on any one player no matter how good they are.
The betting public is most likely responsible for driving down the odds of the San Francisco 49ers with no significant additions to the team’s roster to justify the movement. The 49ers, who lost to the Giants in the NFC Championship in overtime, opened at 15/1 but are currently the third favorite at 10/1. San Francisco’s defense should be back and better than ever, but at these odds you have to question whether or not Alex Smith is the real deal at quarterback.
Stock is Falling
The obvious loser in this category is the New Orleans Saints, who have been rocked to the core by a bounty scandal that has cost them their head coach and a Pro Bowl player for an entire season. The team is still stacked with talent and has Drew Brees as its quarterback, but the betting public is jumping ship in droves. The Saints opened as third-favorites at 17/2 to win a Super Bowl in their own backyard, but have fallen to 18/1 in the latest odds. There could be some solid value here if you feel the team will rally in the face of such adversity, but this whole mess could be just too big of a distraction to overcome.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been perennial Super Bowl favorites, having been to the championship game three times in the past seven seasons and winning the title twice. They opened as fourth-favorites at 12/1 along with the Houston Texans, but have slid steadily down the ranks since then and are now one of three teams at 20/1. There are now nine other teams with lower odds. Once again, the betting public is probably behind this drop as the Steelers have basically the same roster of players that walked off the field in an embarrassing loss to Denver in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs this past January. There could be tremendous value at these higher odds given the overall talent and past history of this team.
Maintaining the Status Quo
In what has become a broken record over the past few seasons, the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots remain the favorites to win their respective conference and meet in the Super Bowl with the Packers the overall favorite to win at 13/2 and the Patriots currently at 8/1.
Both team’s odds have ticked upward a bit with Green Bay opening at 6/1 and New England opening at 7/1 in early February, but overall there is no significant change in the betting public’s opinion that these two teams are still head and shoulders above the rest of the pack.
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