NFL System Picks Week 11
Lightning struck last week, not once, but twice, as both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to break into the win column. Of the two, Jacksonville’s road win was the most impressive, as they did it as double-digit underdogs and now find themselves falling into a decent system play that has gone 129-86-8 (60%) since 1980. The system is to simply bet on any home underdog that is coming off a win as an away underdog.
So far in 2013, the system has gone 3-1 and it is 10-6 since the beginning of the 2012 season.
The Jags also fall into an angle that has covered 11 of its last 12 games and that is to wager on any team that begins the season with at least six straight losses the week following their first victory of the season. The 12-game sample size isn’t necessarily the greatest, but it’s hard to argue with those type of results.
Tampa Bay also falls into the previous system, but the Bucs also fall into the system that we covered last week that says to bet against teams off a win as a home underdog in their last game. So while we had Tampa Bay on Monday night—as a result of the Dolphins winning their previous game as a home underdog—the system now says to wager against them. Cleveland and the New York Jets were the other two teams that we mentioned to go against, as they were both coming off victories as home underdogs and they both return to action this week after their bye.
Another system that was previously covered, betting on road teams off of a road loss, will have several plays this week, Washington and Oakland. The system has traditionally yielded its best results in this stage of the season, going 67-29 (69.8%) between weeks 10 and 13.
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