NFL System Picks Week 3
The Seattle Seahawks go from one extreme to the other this week. After hosting the San Francisco 49ers in one of the most anticipated match-ups in the early going of the 2013 season, the Seahawks now find themselves hosting a putrid Jacksonville team that was thumped by the hapless Raiders last week.
The Raiders should also find themselves on the other end of the spectrum this week, at least from a win-loss perspective, as the Denver Broncos are solid 15.5-point favorites at Bookmaker, showing that the oddsmakers and bettors aren’t putting much stock in Oakland’s domination of the Jaguars.
While the betting public is all over the Broncos, history says it’s not quite so easy for favorites of more than two touchdowns to get the money, as these teams have posted just a 40-60-1 record since 1991.
The Seahawks find themselves in an even worse situation, as favorite of 17.5 points or more are just 4-13 against the spread since 1991 and just 2-11 since the start of the 1993 season.
The New England Patriots are the only NFL team to have been favored by more than 17.5 points since 2007 and the Pats posted an 0-4 ATS record in those games. Bill Belichick’s squad was favored by as many as 23.5 points against the Eagles in 2007—a game they won 31-28—to 20.5 points against the Colts in 2011 in a game that they won just 31-24.
These prohibitive favorites of 17.5 or more points were 16-1 straight up, with only Dallas failing to win in 1995, but surprisingly, these teams were almost as dismal when used in teasers, posting a 7-10 record when used in either 6-point or 10-point teasers.
Totals in these games are just 8-9, although six of the last nine games have gone over.
It will take a bit of nerve to put your money on two of the worst teams in the NFL Sunday, especially when they are going head-to-head with two of the best teams in the league, but there are far worse bets that you can make than taking large underdogs in the NFL.
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