NFL System Picks Week 7
The concept of Monday Night Football was a brilliant one right from the start and for a number of years playing on Monday in front of the rest of the league and the nation was a big thrill for the teams involved. Monday nights have lost a bit of their luster with the advent of Thursday night and Sunday night games, but it’s still a bit of an event for fans and bettors alike.
Teams playing on Monday night have been essentially a 50-50 proposition the following week, regardless if they won or lost or were home or away. But there has been a definite trend in relation to totals. Since the start of the 2003 season, teams playing after Monday night were 203-141-9 in totals, which translates to a solid 59% over percentage.
There was also a noticeable difference depending if the team was home or away the week after playing on Monday night. Teams that played on Monday night and were at home the following week saw their games go 131-79-4 (62.4%) to the over, while teams playing on the road were just 72-62-5 (53.7%) to the over. Teams at home following their Monday night game are 6-3 to the over so far this year, while teams on the road were just 2-2, which is consistent with the long-term results.
That brings us to Sunday’s anticipated meeting between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts, where the total is currently sitting at 55.5 at Bookmaker. While the total appears to be a bit inflated, it’s worth noting that in games where the total was 50 points of higher, the overs went 17-9, which is a solid 65.4%. Hopefully, this is one case where a game lives up to its advance billing and if it does, the over should come through once again.