For three straight weeks the ‘under’ was the solid play on the total line with 28 of the 43 NFL games played staying ‘under’ the total. Last week in the NFL, there was a return to the center with six games going ‘over’, six games staying ‘under’, and one game ending in a ‘push’.
Last week we had the correct call on Carolina and Detroit going ‘over’, but missed the mark on our two other picks. This brings our year-to-date record to 21-12. The following are our top three ‘over/under’ plays for Week 12 in the NFL. All lines quoted are provided by BetOnline.com.
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Over/Under: 42.5
Denver has gone 4-1 ever since handing the reins over to Tim Tebow, and while he may not always be pretty to watch, he does have an uncanny knack of getting his team into the end zone when it needs to the most.
San Diego is riding a five-game losing streak into this contest, but it is still averaging 23.6 points a game. The problem, besides Philip Rivers’ inconsistencies at quarterback, is a defense that is giving-up an average of 25.9 points a game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the last 11 meetings between these two including the first time they met this season. San Diego came away with a 29-24 victory that went ‘over’ the 47-point line.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders Over/Under: 41
The streaking Bears took a major hit in last week’s 31-20 win over San Diego when Jay Cutler was lost with a broken thumb in his throwing hand. In his place is Caleb Hanie, whose last meaningful playing time was in the 2010 NFC Championship Game. Fortunately Chicago has a defense that is ranked 13th in the league in points allowed.
The Raiders have ascended to the top of the AFC West behind Carson Palmer, who has taken over for the injured Jason Campbell. He continues to shake-off the rust from the extended layoff, but is 2-1 in his three starts this season.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of Chicago’s last five road games and in five of its last six games against a team with a winning record. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in five of Oakland’s last seven games overall.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Over/Under: 51
The Giants continue to bounce up and down from one week to the next, but the one thing they have been extremely good at is bouncing-back strong from a bad loss. Last week’s 17-10 meltdown against Philadelphia certainly qualifies, so look for a big game from Eli Manning and Co. this Monday night.
New Orleans has also turned-in a few clunkers this season, but Drew Brees still has this offense humming with an average of 31.3 points a game. The Saints’ defense has been fairly generous in handing out points; giving-up an average of 22.8 points a game.
These two prime-time players have had a tendency to light things up on Monday night with the total going ‘over’ in three of the Giants last five Monday night games in five of the Saints last seven games on Monday night. The last time these two teams met in the Superdome was in 2009 with New Orleans coming out on top 48-27.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.