For the past three weeks in the NFL, the odds makers have been taking it on the chin on the total line with 28 of the 43 games played staying ‘under’ the total which equates to 65.1 percent of the time. Last week, 10 of the 16 games stayed ‘under’ the total.
Our 66.7 winning percentage this season remained intact with the correct call on Washington and Miami staying ‘under’ and New England and New York (Jets) going ‘over’. This brings our year-to-date record to 20-10. The following are our top three ‘over/under’ plays for Week 11 in the NFL. All lines quoted are provided by BetOnline.com.
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Over/Under: 47.5
The addition of rookie quarterback Cam Newton may have not led to a bundle of victories for Carolina yet, but its offensive production of 21.1 points a game is a vast improvement from last season. The defense however, still needs some work after giving-up an average of 26.3 points a game so far this year.
Detroit’s signal-caller, Matthew Stafford has a broken finger in his throwing hand but it is not expected to affect his ability to throw the ball. The Lions have cooled since a fast 5-0 start, but their offense is still ranked fourth in the NFL in scoring with an average of 28 points a game.
The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of the Panthers last 12 games as an ‘underdog’ and in seven of the Lions last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Over/Under: 41
Another rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton has brought a bunch of wins to Cincinnati with a 6-3 record after nine games. Two of his favorite targets, A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham are a bit banged-up for this game, but the Bengals can still rely on a defense that is giving-up just 18.2 points a game.
When it comes to defense, Baltimore has written the book on the subject in recent years. This season is no different as the Ravens’ defense is ranked near the top of the league in just about every major category including points allowed. It is giving-up an average of just 16.9 points which is third-best in the NFL.
The total in this series has stayed ‘under’ in the last four meetings in Baltimore and in the last four games overall.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins Over/Under: 41.5
Tony Romo and the Dallas offense put-up 44 points last week against Buffalo and is averaging 24.8 points a game, but with wide receiver Mile Austin still out of the lineup and running backs’ Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray listed as questionable with lingering injuries, some of the fire-power may be missing from the Cowboy’s attack this Sunday.
It does not matter who is in the lineup for Washington on offense as it flat-out cannot score points. The Redskins have amassed a total of 20 points in their last three games and have not scored more than 20 points in any single game since Week 2 against Arizona.
Head-to-head in this series, the total has stayed ‘under’ in four of the last five meetings in Washington and in five of the last six games overall.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.