Last week’s results on the NFL total line slightly favored the ‘under’ with nine games staying ‘under’ the total, six games going ‘over’, and one game ending in a ‘push’.
There were no Christmas presents last week with a 0-2-1 record on our top picks. We were off the mark on the Giants/Jets and Eagles/Cowboys games and salvaged a ‘push’ on Jacksonville/Tennessee. This brings our year-to-date record to 27-19-2. The following are our top three ‘over/under’ plays for the final week of the 2011 NFL regular season. All lines quoted are provided by BetOnline.com.
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Over/Under: 46.5
The Redskins have only won five games this season, but their offense is finally coming to life with an average of 23.7 points over its last six games. Defensively, Washington has gone in the other direction; giving-up over 30 points in three of its last four games.
Philadelphia is officially out of the NFC East title race, but brings a three-game winning streak into Sunday’s game in which its offense, under the guidance of Michael Vick, has averaged over 30 points a game. The Eagles are ranked third in the NFL in total yards per game (399.7) and eighth in points per game (24.1).
The total has gone ‘over’ in five of Washington’s last six games overall. It has also gone ‘over’ in 11 of Philadelphia’s last 15 games following a SU win. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five games between the two.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Over/Under: 51
The Bills’ offense may have been dormant for the second half of the season, but it showed definite signs of life last Sunday in a 40-14 romp over Denver. This was their biggest offensive output since posting a 41-7 victory over Kansas City on opening day.
New England’s offense has been alive and kicking all season long with an average of 30.9 points a game, which is third-best in the league. Last week, the Patriots stormed-back from a 17-0 deficit in the third quarter to come away with a 27-24 win over Miami.
The total has gone ‘over’ in nine of Buffalo’s last 10 games as an underdog. It has also gone ‘over’ in 10 of New England’s last 13 games as a home favorite. In this series, the total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last five games.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders Over/Under: 49
Philip Rivers and the San Diego offense reverted back to its old form after a brief three-game run in an ugly 38-10 loss to Detroit last Sunday. The Chargers have scored 21 points or less in eight of their 15 games this season.
Oakland was able to squeeze-out a 19-16 victory over the Chiefs last Sunday in overtime to keep its AFC West title hopes alive. This Sunday, the Raiders will have to beat San Diego with defense, considering their offense has averaged just 18.3 points a game over the past four weeks.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of San Diego’s last five games against the AFC West. It has stayed ‘under’ in six of Oakland’s last eight games against the AFC. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in nine of the last 14 meetings between the two.
Free NFL Pick: UNDER
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.