While a good majority of the betting public tends to focus its energy on handicapping the point spread in an NFL matchup, very often there is quite of bit of value to be found in the total line, if you know where and how to look.
So far this season we have been Banging the Book on the total line with a winning percentage of 66 percent. In an effort to share the wealth, we will be releasing our top three ‘over/under’ plays on for the rest of the season as a free NFL pick. All lines quoted are provided by Bookmaker
Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers Over/Under: 48
Minnesota is off to such a dismal start it has already turned the keys to truck over to rookie quarterback Christian Ponder after longtime veteran Donovan McNabb proved ineffective. Heading into this game the Vikings’ offense is ranked 21st in scoring with an average of 21.1 points a game.
Carolina’s rookie QB Cam Newton has already shown flashes of greatness and the ability to rack up yards, but right now his team is 2-5 and averaging 23.7 points a game.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of Minnesota’s last seven road games. It has also stayed ‘under’ in eight of Carolina’s last nine games as a favorite. In the last six meetings between the two teams the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of the games.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Seattle Seahawks Over/Under: 38
Cincinnati is another team that has turned the reins over to a rookie quarterback and while Andy Dalton’s statistics are average at best, he has led his team to three straight win in which the Bengals have averaged 26.7 points a game.
Last week’s 6-3 baseball score aside, Seattle has proven it can put points on the board especially at home. Earlier this season, the Seahawks posted 28 points on Atlanta and 36 points on the N.Y. Giants.
The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the Bengals last five games as a road favorite and in five of their last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the Seahawks last eight home games and in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Over/Under: 50.5
Dallas is 3-3 on the year and with the exception of last week’s 34-7 victory over St. Louis, each of its other six games has been decided by four points or less. The Cowboys are ranked 10th in the league in scoring with an average 24.8 points a game.
Philadelphia’s offense is ranked third in the NFL overall and averaging 24.2 points a game, but its defense is giving-up an average of 24.1 points a game and one of the main reasons for the unexpected 2-4 start.
The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Cowboys last nine road games and in 12 of their last 15 games against the NFC. The total has also gone ‘over’ in five of the Eagles last six games following a straight-up win and in 13 of the Eagles last 19 games overall. Head-to-head, it has gone ‘over’ in two of the last three meetings.
Free NFL Pick: OVER
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.