The odds makers have been able to keep the lines pretty sharp this season, but last week they opened the door on the total line with nine of the 13 games staying ‘under’.
So far this season we have been Banging the Book on the total line with a winning percentage of 66 percent and last week was no exception with the ‘under’ play on Minnesota at Carolina and the ‘over’ play on Cincinnati at Seattle. The following are our top three ‘over/under’ plays for Week 9 as a free NFL pick. All lines quoted are provided by BetOnline.com.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Over/Under: 50
The Buccaneers’ offense has struggled with consistency all season long. They post 26 points on the Saints the first time they met this season, but have been held to 20 or less points in four of their first seven games.
The Saints have had no problem finding the end zone with an average of 32.5 points a game, but were held to a season-low 20 points just three weeks ago in a loss to Tampa Bay.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 13 games against the NFC South and in six of the its last eight games as an underdog of 3.5 points or more. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the Saints last seven games against the NFC South and four of their last five games as a home favorite of 3.5 points or more. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in the last six meetings between the two.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans Over/Under: 42
The Browns and high scoring games just do not mix. Their offense is ranked 28th in scoring with an average of 15.3 points a game and their defense that is ranked eighth in points allowed; giving-up an average of 20 points a game.
Houston has always been thought of as an explosive team on offense, but soft on defense. This season that has all changed as the offense is still averaging over 25 points a game, but the defense is holding teams to an average of just 18.1 points a game, which is fifth lowest in the league.
The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of Cleveland’s last six games on the road and in Houston’s last four games at home. In this series, the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last five meetings.
The Free NFL Pick: UNDER
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under: 42
The Ravens will always be known for having a shutdown defense, but this season they are getting it done on the other side of the ball as well with an average of 26.4 points a game, which is ranked seventh in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s defense is also one of the best in the league, but its offense has shown the ability to score when it has to. The Steelers have averaged 28 points a game in their recent four-game winning streak.
The total has gone ‘over’ in six of Baltimore’s last eight games overall and in five of Pittsburgh’s last seven games against the AFC North. Head-to-head in this series, the total has gone ‘over’ in six of the last eight games played in Pittsburgh and in eight of the last 12 meetings overall.
The Free NFL Pick: OVER
DJ is a freelance writer that concentrates on his true passion in life; the world of sports. He produces a number of articles each week for BangTheBook.com as well as a select group of other websites that specialize in providing the most up-to-date information for the sports gaming industry. His goal is to write insightful articles on a wide variety of sporting topics that can provide an edge to today's sophisticated online player.