The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to square off in Sunday Night Football betting action this week at Arrowhead Stadium. But before you make your NFL picks for the big game on Sunday, check out some of the great NFL betting trends that we have for the duel!
Pittsburgh Steelers Notes: The Steelers will enter Sunday Night Football this week a half game out of first place in the AFC North. They aren’t going to have that much of an issue staying in the playoff race even if they are upset in this one, as they will still be in one of the Wild Card slots for the time being regardless the outcome in this game. Pittsburgh has covered eight out of its last 11 games when it was favored, and it is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a losing record. However, when the Steelers are double digit favorites, the story is completely different. They’ve failed to cover four in a row when they are asked to lay more than 10.
The offensive line is really going to have a do a solid job in this game. The KC defense seems to be more prone to the pass than the run, especially after watching QB Tom Brady rip this defense apart with his tight ends last week. That being said, if Pittsburgh doesn’t do a good job taking care of QB Ben Roethlisberger with his fractured thumb, it could be a long day for the offense. The Steelers are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry over the course of their last three games, numbers which just aren’t going to cut it, especially on the road against a team with everything to gain and virtually nothing to lose.
LB LaMarr Woodley is going to be a game time decision with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of the fold for the last three weeks. The same could be said about DT Chris Hoke. Hoke is leaning more towards playing, while it seems like it is another week or so until Woodley comes back to the defense. The offense’s big injury is obviously that of QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has played with worse ailments before in his career, so we aren’t shocked that he is going to give it a go with his broken thumb, but it is definitely something worth monitoring, especially with colder temperatures kicking in this week in Kansas City.
Kansas City Chiefs Notes: The Chiefs probably know that they are all but out of the race in the AFC West, though they are only two games back coming into the start of Week 12. None of these four teams are anywhere dominating, so anything is possible, but without a legitimate passing game and going against a defense that is always one of the best against the rush every single year, things aren’t looking pretty. The ATS defeat last week at the hands of the New England Patriots on the road ended a streak of five straight games in which Kansas City had covered as an underdog. Still, the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as double digit pups. This is a short week for KC though, and in games when it plays on Sunday following a Monday Night Football contest, it is just 3-9 ATS.
All eyes are going to be on the quarterbacks for the Chiefs. They did get QB Kyle Orton this week thanks to the fact that the Denver Broncos cut him, but he has only been in camp a few days and certainly isn’t capable of starting quite yet. However, Head Coach Todd Haley has already said that he won’t be afraid to put Orton in the saddle right away if QB Tyler Palko struggles. It wouldn’t be all that surprising, as he couldn’t get the ball up the field whatsoever last week against the Pats, who have a significantly worse secondary than the Steelers do.
We know that QB Matt Cassel is going to be out for the next several weeks and probably for the rest of the year with a broken hand, but the rest of the injuries on this list could be just as hurtful to the Chiefs. G Ryan Lilja is out with a head injury, while S Jon McGraw and DE Glenn Dorsey are both likely out of the fold with a shoulder injury and ankle injury respectively. LB Demorrio Williams has a strain groin that has kept him out of the fold in each of the last two weeks, and he is questionable for Sunday night’s tilt.
Head To Head: If you like high scoring games, historically, this is the matchup for you. Four straight between these teams played at Arrowhead Stadium have gone past the ‘total’, while five consecutive meetings overall have also gotten past the number. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this rivalry. Two years ago, in a seemingly identical situation, the 10.5 point underdog Chiefs pulled off the upset of the Steelers 27-24 right here at Arrowhead Stadium.
Aaron Ryan has been in the sportswriting biz since the late-90s, and he has worked side by side with some of the best and brightest in sports gambling. Always searching for the best trends in sports, Andrew uses his brilliant math mind to his advantage to beat the books.