NFL Week 1 Picks: Two Systems – Early Release
There are two different approaches when it comes to betting the first few weeks of a new NFL season. Some bettors like to wager early, believing that is when it is possible to get an edge on the oddsmakers. Others prefer to go slowly at the beginning, electing to wait until teams have played several games before stepping in once they are better able to assess how a team is going to perform.
Those bettors who come out firing right from the start will often try to get an even earlier start, as lines for the first week of the 2013 NFL season have been posted. Looking at the lines as of May 26 from 5Dimes:
Denver 8 over Baltimore 49.5
Sunday, Sept. 8
New England 6.5 at Buffalo 53
Pittsburgh 6.5 over Tennessee 43.5
New Orleans 2 over Atlanta 54
Tampa Bay 1 at New York Jets 41.5
Kansas City 1 at Jacksonville 39.5
Chicago 4 over Cincinnati 45
Miami 1.5 at Cleveland 39.5
Seattle 3.5 at Carolina 45.5
Detroit 3 over Minnesota 47
Indianapolis 7 over Oakland 49
St. Louis 5 over Arizona 40
San Francisco 4.5 over Green Bay 50.5
Dallas 3 over New York Giants 49
Monday, Sept. 9
Washington 6 over Philadelphia 51
Houston 3 at San Diego 46
Regardless of which approach to early season NFL betting you take, there have been several profitable situations that are specific to week one. The first is to simply wager on any team that lost 10 or more games the previous season if they are an under. Dating back to 1990, these teams are 87-62-2 (58.4%) against the spread. The public simply doesn’t like to bet on losers and as a result, those going against the grain are likely to be getting the best of the line. Teams that fall into this NFL Picks system this year are Buffalo, Tennessee, Jets, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland, Arizona and Philadelphia.
The second system also deals with underdogs; although this time you are looking for home underdogs playing in games where the over/under is at least 45. Since 1990, home underdogs in the month of September are 23-33 (58.9% under) in totals. But in week one, these games are just 3-11, going under more than 78% of the time.
This year, three games qualify on opening week 1: NFL Under Picks; New England at Buffalo, Seattle at Carolina and Houston at San Diego.
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